Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Professor @EconCalgary | Fiscal/Econ Policy Director @policy_school | Alum @econuoft @SFUBeedie | Contributor @TheHubCanada | 💻 📊 📝 🍻

May 11, 2021, 12 tweets

Today's COVID vaccination update:

- Total shots given: 16,557,932
- Shots per 100 people: 43.6
- Shots reported today: 299,777
- Inventory: 10.2 days (at avg pace)
- Adults w/ 1+ Shots: 48.4%

Source: covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

Canada is now up to 16.6 million shots given -- which is 83.4% of the total 19.9 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 3,139,620 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 1.3 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 299,777 shots given compares to an average of 324,814/day over the past week and 245,701/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 284,888
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Sep 12

Based on the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 50% by May 23 and 75% by June 23. We reach 75% of *adults only* (age 16+) by June 7.

Gray lines are past projections. This illustrates the extent of recent changes.

< screwed up the thread ... here's a quick recovery with the deleted tweets >

Recent modeling suggests health rules may be safely eased once 75% of adults have at least one dose and 20% have two canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

This requires ~30M shots. We're on pace for that by June 21.

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 119 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NS at 38

- Highest share of delivered doses used: SK with 92%
- Lowest: NU with 65%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 63% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 40% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 55%
- Fewest Vaccinated: PE at 33%

Looking forward, here's time to reach 75% of *adults* w/ 1+ doses based on the latest 7-day average daily pace.

- SK fastest at 22 days.
- PEI slowest at 46 days.

How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 7th out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated. In terms of total doses per 100, Canada is 7th.

Source: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 42.6% of pop
- Top State: VT, 62.3
- Top Terr: YT, 63.2

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 7.2% of pop
- Top State: ME, 46.1
- Top Terr: YT, 55.3

Sources: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… and covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

And then it continues here:



< really screwed that up >

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