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Trevor Tombe Profile picture
@trevortombe
May 11, 2021 • 12 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Today's COVID vaccination update:

- Total shots given: 16,557,932
- Shots per 100 people: 43.6
- Shots reported today: 299,777
- Inventory: 10.2 days (at avg pace)
- Adults w/ 1+ Shots: 48.4%

Source: covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…
Canada is now up to 16.6 million shots given -- which is 83.4% of the total 19.9 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 3,139,620 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 1.3 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 299,777 shots given compares to an average of 324,814/day over the past week and 245,701/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 284,888
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Sep 12
Based on the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 50% by May 23 and 75% by June 23. We reach 75% of *adults only* (age 16+) by June 7.

Gray lines are past projections. This illustrates the extent of recent changes.
< screwed up the thread ... here's a quick recovery with the deleted tweets >
Recent modeling suggests health rules may be safely eased once 75% of adults have at least one dose and 20% have two canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

This requires ~30M shots. We're on pace for that by June 21.
Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 119 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NS at 38

- Highest share of delivered doses used: SK with 92%
- Lowest: NU with 65%
A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 63% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 40% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 55%
- Fewest Vaccinated: PE at 33%
Looking forward, here's time to reach 75% of *adults* w/ 1+ doses based on the latest 7-day average daily pace.

- SK fastest at 22 days.
- PEI slowest at 46 days.
How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 7th out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated. In terms of total doses per 100, Canada is 7th.

Source: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…
Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 42.6% of pop
- Top State: VT, 62.3
- Top Terr: YT, 63.2

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 7.2% of pop
- Top State: ME, 46.1
- Top Terr: YT, 55.3

Sources: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… and covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…
And then it continues here:



< really screwed that up >

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More from @trevortombe

Trevor Tombe Profile picture
May 21
Today's data: inflation rate falls to 2.7% in April. Would have fallen more, but gasoline pushed the rate up. Shelter remains largest contributor, but pace of increase is falling.

#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
The key Bank of Canada core measures of inflation have also remained within the target range -- lower than 2% -- over the past 3 months. This is what the bank is looking forward before lowering rates. Image
Here are the contributors to the drop. Most items down, but energy prices offset some of that.

This accounts for *changes* in the CPI annual rate of increase. Alternatively, had energy prices remained flat yoy, then CPI growth would have been 2.4% in April. Image
Read 4 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Feb 20
Today's data: inflation! 🥳 Prices were 2.9%, on average, higher in January than a year earlier. Inflation down from 3.4% in Dec. Biggest contributors to the drop were energy, food, travel. Cell phones offsetting some.



#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
Looking at the headline rate, shelter is larger contributor. Rent accounts for ~0.5 points of the 2.9, mortgage interest costs ~1.0 points.

Important: note the strong decline in the pace of grocery price growth. Now in line with historical norm. Image
The decline in inflation has also been fairly broad based, with now fewer than half of items seeing a pace of price growth above 3% -- although still a larger share than normal, which is ~0.3-0.4. Image
Read 7 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Jan 16
Today's data: inflation!! 📈 Consumer prices were 3.4% higher in December than one year earlier. That's up from 3.1% in November.

I'll explore some of what's going on. #cdnecon #cdnpoli 🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
This is higher than last month, true, but it doesn't mean the inflation situation is worsening. I noted this yesterday, saying 3.4% was the number to watch.
This is a *very* important point to keep in mind for the next *several* months. Even if things are completely normal month-by-month, the headline rate won't fall much over the next quarter. Image
Read 9 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Nov 21, 2023
As expected, inflation fell in October. A lot. From 3.8% in September to 3.1% in October. And monthly, adjusted for seasonality, prices were lower in October than Sept.

I'll unpack some more patterns here 🧵 #cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
A big part of the reason is from lower gasoline prices. That's anticipated because oil prices were down. There's a tight connection between energy's contribution to CPI and oil prices (obviously). This has been a consistent story over the past two years. Image
You can see the size of the contribution from energy to the change in inflation since September here 👇 . Basically everything else was a net wash. Image
Read 11 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Nov 11, 2023
Some Alberta Pension Plan proponents are concerned about Albertans paying more in contributions than they receive in benefits. Is this "overcontribution" legitimate? If so, does it imply the CPP is unfair? Would an APP solve it?

Allow me to explain. 🧵🤓 #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon
The Government of Alberta regularly cites $60 billion in excess contributions over what has been received in benefits. The report commissioned by the government includes this figure. Red is Alberta. Positive means contributions > benefits. 👇 Image
The data are accurate. You don't even need an actuary. Statistics Canada reports this annually. Total contributions from 1966-2021 amount to approximately $60 billion. Adjusting for inflation provides a clearer perspective. Image
Read 14 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Nov 4, 2023
To better understand this claim, consider an equally true but misleading statement: eliminating the GST would "reduce inflation by 61%"! 😲

Does that mean the GST is inflationary? What about the carbon tax?

I'll try to clarify things 🧵 🤓 #cdnecon #cdnpoli
The GST adds 5% to the cost of purchasing a good or service subject to this tax. Not all items are subject to it, though. I (roughly) estimate that, overall, the GST adds an average of 2.3% for consumer expenditures as a whole. (From here: )www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
So, eliminating the GST would drop the CPI by 2.3%. Since the latest inflation reading is 3.8%, that would leave us at 1.5% (assuming nothing else changed). And 1.5% is 61% lower than 3.8%.

Simple. But not helpful or informative.
Read 10 tweets

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