THREAD
So many remarkable things in today's @IEA net-zero by 2050 report. Here are a few:
⛏️ immediate end to new fossil fuel extraction
🏭 unabated fossil energy plummets
-98% coal
-91% oil
-88% gas
🌞 solar becomes largest energy source
1/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
IEA boss Fatih Birol calls the net-zero scenario "the energy future we all need to focus on"
Not hard to see why:
🌡️ avoids 1.5C
⚡️ universal energy access
😷 2m fewer premature pollution deaths
💵 increases global GDP
2/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
There's one big problem…
The world's currently on track for 2.7C (STEPS)
Even all the net-zero goals mean 2.1C (APC)
…leaving a 22GtCO2 ambition gap in 2050 to stay below 1.5C (NZE)
"[the] gap between rhetoric and action needs to close"
3/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
Net-zero CO2 from energy and industry by 2050 is hugely ambitious, particularly as the IEA roadmap shuns offsets from land or forests
Here's energy+industry CO2 emissions in the IEA NZE, relative to IPCC no- or low-overshoot scenarios
4/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
Across a range of metrics, the IEA's net-zero by 2050 pathway matches or exceeds the ambition in IPCC no- or low-overshoot scenarios
5/
(HT @Peters_Glen for data help)
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
Renewables replace fossil fuels as the backbone of the global energy system in the IEA net-zero scenario
Global energy supply in 2020:
79% fossil fuels
16% renewable
5% nuclear
In 2050:
67% renewable
22% fossil, of which 5% unabated
11% nuclear
6/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
💥By 2050, wind + solar each generate as much as the global electricity system today💥
The net-zero transition is particularly stark for electricity, which grows 2.5x while going zero-carbon in rich countries by 2035 and globally by 2040
7/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
One of most important innovations in IEA report is the side "cases" that reach net-zero by 2050 with…
* low CCS
* low CCS + nuclear
* no more land for bioenergy
* low intl cooperation
* all-electric transport
* no behaviour change
* delayed retrofit
8/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
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