Simon Evans Profile picture
Posts/data about climate+energy Press Gazette energy & envt journo of yr 2022 Deputy Ed, Senior Policy Ed @CarbonBrief DMs open simon.evans@carbonbrief.org

May 18, 2021, 8 tweets

THREAD

So many remarkable things in today's @IEA net-zero by 2050 report. Here are a few:

⛏️ immediate end to new fossil fuel extraction
🏭 unabated fossil energy plummets

-98% coal
-91% oil
-88% gas

🌞 solar becomes largest energy source

1/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

IEA boss Fatih Birol calls the net-zero scenario "the energy future we all need to focus on"

Not hard to see why:

🌡️ avoids 1.5C
⚡️ universal energy access
😷 2m fewer premature pollution deaths
💵 increases global GDP

2/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

There's one big problem…

The world's currently on track for 2.7C (STEPS)
Even all the net-zero goals mean 2.1C (APC)

…leaving a 22GtCO2 ambition gap in 2050 to stay below 1.5C (NZE)

"[the] gap between rhetoric and action needs to close"

3/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

Net-zero CO2 from energy and industry by 2050 is hugely ambitious, particularly as the IEA roadmap shuns offsets from land or forests

Here's energy+industry CO2 emissions in the IEA NZE, relative to IPCC no- or low-overshoot scenarios

4/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

Across a range of metrics, the IEA's net-zero by 2050 pathway matches or exceeds the ambition in IPCC no- or low-overshoot scenarios

5/

(HT @Peters_Glen for data help)

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

Renewables replace fossil fuels as the backbone of the global energy system in the IEA net-zero scenario

Global energy supply in 2020:

79% fossil fuels
16% renewable
5% nuclear

In 2050:

67% renewable
22% fossil, of which 5% unabated
11% nuclear

6/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

💥By 2050, wind + solar each generate as much as the global electricity system today💥

The net-zero transition is particularly stark for electricity, which grows 2.5x while going zero-carbon in rich countries by 2035 and globally by 2040

7/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

One of most important innovations in IEA report is the side "cases" that reach net-zero by 2050 with…

* low CCS
* low CCS + nuclear
* no more land for bioenergy
* low intl cooperation
* all-electric transport
* no behaviour change
* delayed retrofit

8/

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

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