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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
May 18, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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THREAD

So many remarkable things in today's @IEA net-zero by 2050 report. Here are a few:

⛏️ immediate end to new fossil fuel extraction
🏭 unabated fossil energy plummets

-98% coal
-91% oil
-88% gas

🌞 solar becomes largest energy source

1/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
IEA boss Fatih Birol calls the net-zero scenario "the energy future we all need to focus on"

Not hard to see why:

🌡️ avoids 1.5C
⚡️ universal energy access
😷 2m fewer premature pollution deaths
💵 increases global GDP

2/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
There's one big problem…

The world's currently on track for 2.7C (STEPS)
Even all the net-zero goals mean 2.1C (APC)

…leaving a 22GtCO2 ambition gap in 2050 to stay below 1.5C (NZE)

"[the] gap between rhetoric and action needs to close"

3/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
Net-zero CO2 from energy and industry by 2050 is hugely ambitious, particularly as the IEA roadmap shuns offsets from land or forests

Here's energy+industry CO2 emissions in the IEA NZE, relative to IPCC no- or low-overshoot scenarios

4/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
Across a range of metrics, the IEA's net-zero by 2050 pathway matches or exceeds the ambition in IPCC no- or low-overshoot scenarios

5/
(HT @Peters_Glen for data help)

carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
Renewables replace fossil fuels as the backbone of the global energy system in the IEA net-zero scenario

Global energy supply in 2020:

79% fossil fuels
16% renewable
5% nuclear

In 2050:

67% renewable
22% fossil, of which 5% unabated
11% nuclear

6/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
💥By 2050, wind + solar each generate as much as the global electricity system today💥

The net-zero transition is particularly stark for electricity, which grows 2.5x while going zero-carbon in rich countries by 2035 and globally by 2040

7/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…
One of most important innovations in IEA report is the side "cases" that reach net-zero by 2050 with…

* low CCS
* low CCS + nuclear
* no more land for bioenergy
* low intl cooperation
* all-electric transport
* no behaviour change
* delayed retrofit

8/
carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables…

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jan 2
+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%


1/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-e…Image
UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
2/9 Image
The UK has cut gas-fired electricity generation by 13% in a decade – even as it was phasing out coal power – thanks to rising renewable output (mainly wind), along with lower demand + higher imports

More on falling demand here:

3/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-el…Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Oct 30, 2024
Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Image
Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7 Image
The world's solar industry employs as many people as gas

Solar + EVs + batteries + wind combined employ as many as oil
3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Sep 27, 2024
NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
But the UK was the world's first "coal-fired economy" – and that started long before coal-fired power

🥤Coal fuelled pumps to drain mines to get more coal
📈And as steam engines got more efficient, it got cheaper to use and extract ever more of the fuel, inspiring "Jevons paradox"

3/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…Image
Read 10 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Aug 6, 2024
Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵
Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…
Let's pause for a moment to congratulate Andrew for successfully quoting a report (albeit without attribution)

This is the only thing he did right.
Read 15 tweets

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