Has the #WestBengal #COVID19 (partial) lockdown been useful? YES!!! Future prognosis? A thread based on analysis by @cessi_iiserkol team 👇🏾
New daily cases have halved since May 15 (beginning of lockdown).
Left @covid19indiaorg data; Right: CESSI model projection versus data 1/n
The pandemic growth rate has dipped below zero during the lockdown and is in the negative which is desirable. The more negative is the growth rate, the faster is the fall in active cases. Negative growth rate needs to be sustained. 2/n
Test positivity (percentage of those who test positive) has almost halved over the #lockdown period and is around 17% as of May 31. Should be sustained below 2.5% to keep the #COVID19 pandemic at a manageable level and ideally should be 0%! 3/n
The effective reproduction number (how many new individuals an infected person infects, on average) fell below 1.0 and was 0.73 on May 31 (based on @cessi_iiserkol empirical calculation). A number well below 1.0 implies lockdown + containment + social distancing is working. 4/n
How should we design our strategy? @cessi_iiserkol model projection provides perspective. If we are in the zone over the model projected red curve we are doing badly and are in danger. Our target should be to continue partial containment to reach safe zone indicated below. 5/n
Until test positivity falls below 2.5%, reproduction number sustains below 0.8, growth rate stays firmly negative for a week or more and observed new active cases reduces to safe zone of model projection, we should not relax partial containment measures. 6/n
In the meantime, there is no alternative to fast vaccination if we are to avoid possibility of significant new #COVID19 growth spurts in the future. And wearing masks anywhere in public (markets, work places, transport) should be made mandatory. This is easy with max benefit 7/n
@cessi_iiserkol IISER Kolkata COVID19 resources based on our modelling and data analysis for West Bengal, other states, Pune City, and all of India are available at our #COVID19 dashboard here
cessi.in/coronavirus/
I wish to bring this West Bengal covid pandemic projection and analysis to your attention @wbdhfw @MamataOfficial @MahuaMoitra @derekobrienmp @WBPolice @jdhankhar1 @SuPriyoBabul
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