Thread by @trevortombe

Today's vaccine update 💉

- Shots reported today*: 471,409 (63% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 27,729,183
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 72.3%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.8% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 73.0
- Inventory: 7.3 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Missing YT (not reported yet)

The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 21.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 67.0% and 9.0%
- Adults: 73.8% and 12.7%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates

In total, Canada is now up to 27.7 million shots given -- which is 90.4% of the total 30.7 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,925,050 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.7 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's daily pace:

Today's 471,409 shots given compares to an average of 399,380/day over the past week and 369,459/day the week prior.

We can use the latest average daily pace to project where vaccination rates are soon headed.

Based on that pace, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's when we might achieve different rates:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 16
- By Canada Day: 80.3% with 1+ doses and 28.5% with 2
- Match current U.S. fully vax rate: July 22
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 13

Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~22-49%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 130 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NL at 67

- Highest share of delivered doses used: NB with 95%
- Lowest: NU with 65%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 70% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: NL at 60% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 61%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 45%

How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 66.5% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.8
- Top Terr: YT, 69.6

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 14.4% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.8
- Top Terr: YT, 60.8

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa

Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 1.05 per day. The US rises by 0.34 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 27 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 18 days.

Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/