Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Jun 11, 2021 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Today's vaccine update 💉

- Shots reported today*: 471,409 (63% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 27,729,183
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 72.3%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.8% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 73.0
- Inventory: 7.3 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Missing YT (not reported yet)
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 21.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 67.0% and 9.0%
- Adults: 73.8% and 12.7%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.7 million shots given -- which is 90.4% of the total 30.7 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,925,050 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.7 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Canada's daily pace:

Today's 471,409 shots given compares to an average of 399,380/day over the past week and 369,459/day the week prior.

We can use the latest average daily pace to project where vaccination rates are soon headed.
Based on that pace, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's when we might achieve different rates:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 16
- By Canada Day: 80.3% with 1+ doses and 28.5% with 2
- Match current U.S. fully vax rate: July 22
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 13
Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~22-49%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…
Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 130 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NL at 67

- Highest share of delivered doses used: NB with 95%
- Lowest: NU with 65%
A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 70% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: NL at 60% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 61%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 45%
How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st
Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 66.5% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.8
- Top Terr: YT, 69.6

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 14.4% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.8
- Top Terr: YT, 60.8

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa
Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 1.05 per day. The US rises by 0.34 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 27 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 18 days.
Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!
Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

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More from @trevortombe

May 21
Today's data: inflation rate falls to 2.7% in April. Would have fallen more, but gasoline pushed the rate up. Shelter remains largest contributor, but pace of increase is falling.

#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
The key Bank of Canada core measures of inflation have also remained within the target range -- lower than 2% -- over the past 3 months. This is what the bank is looking forward before lowering rates. Image
Here are the contributors to the drop. Most items down, but energy prices offset some of that.

This accounts for *changes* in the CPI annual rate of increase. Alternatively, had energy prices remained flat yoy, then CPI growth would have been 2.4% in April. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 20
Today's data: inflation! 🥳 Prices were 2.9%, on average, higher in January than a year earlier. Inflation down from 3.4% in Dec. Biggest contributors to the drop were energy, food, travel. Cell phones offsetting some.



#cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
Looking at the headline rate, shelter is larger contributor. Rent accounts for ~0.5 points of the 2.9, mortgage interest costs ~1.0 points.

Important: note the strong decline in the pace of grocery price growth. Now in line with historical norm. Image
The decline in inflation has also been fairly broad based, with now fewer than half of items seeing a pace of price growth above 3% -- although still a larger share than normal, which is ~0.3-0.4. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 16
Today's data: inflation!! 📈 Consumer prices were 3.4% higher in December than one year earlier. That's up from 3.1% in November.

I'll explore some of what's going on. #cdnecon #cdnpoli 🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
This is higher than last month, true, but it doesn't mean the inflation situation is worsening. I noted this yesterday, saying 3.4% was the number to watch.
This is a *very* important point to keep in mind for the next *several* months. Even if things are completely normal month-by-month, the headline rate won't fall much over the next quarter. Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 21, 2023
As expected, inflation fell in October. A lot. From 3.8% in September to 3.1% in October. And monthly, adjusted for seasonality, prices were lower in October than Sept.

I'll unpack some more patterns here 🧵 #cdnecon #cdnpoli www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
Image
A big part of the reason is from lower gasoline prices. That's anticipated because oil prices were down. There's a tight connection between energy's contribution to CPI and oil prices (obviously). This has been a consistent story over the past two years. Image
You can see the size of the contribution from energy to the change in inflation since September here 👇 . Basically everything else was a net wash. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 11, 2023
Some Alberta Pension Plan proponents are concerned about Albertans paying more in contributions than they receive in benefits. Is this "overcontribution" legitimate? If so, does it imply the CPP is unfair? Would an APP solve it?

Allow me to explain. 🧵🤓 #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon
The Government of Alberta regularly cites $60 billion in excess contributions over what has been received in benefits. The report commissioned by the government includes this figure. Red is Alberta. Positive means contributions > benefits. 👇 Image
The data are accurate. You don't even need an actuary. Statistics Canada reports this annually. Total contributions from 1966-2021 amount to approximately $60 billion. Adjusting for inflation provides a clearer perspective. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 4, 2023
To better understand this claim, consider an equally true but misleading statement: eliminating the GST would "reduce inflation by 61%"! 😲

Does that mean the GST is inflationary? What about the carbon tax?

I'll try to clarify things 🧵 🤓 #cdnecon #cdnpoli
The GST adds 5% to the cost of purchasing a good or service subject to this tax. Not all items are subject to it, though. I (roughly) estimate that, overall, the GST adds an average of 2.3% for consumer expenditures as a whole. (From here: )www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…
So, eliminating the GST would drop the CPI by 2.3%. Since the latest inflation reading is 3.8%, that would leave us at 1.5% (assuming nothing else changed). And 1.5% is 61% lower than 3.8%.

Simple. But not helpful or informative.
Read 10 tweets

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