Thread by @althecat

What a difference a gnarly little low makes. The till now stationary #EuropeBigWet is about to be blown away. Which will be a relief to some. But there are still a bunch of storms coming.

Here in France where we had been expecting to largely ride this out a bunch of big rain events are now coming. Which I will enjoy and will probably also be welcomed by farmers.

A series of North Atlantic storms will soon break the current traffic jam caused by the stationary low over Eastern Europe.

This 10 day simulation shows one possible scenario but the underlying situation is absurdly complicated, so don’t count on this as a guide.

The accumulated rainfall forecast still has a lot of rain, and some for everyone. But the massive Central European totals which might have caused flooding issues are now gone.

The biggest uncertainty in what is yet to come in #EuropeBigWet comes from the complexity of computing the sheer quantities of water involved. The forecasts in this thread have been from the @ECMWF model. Which is European.

Here is their latest PWAT simulation for 10 days.

Here is the GFS version of the same PWAT simulation, it’s also longer 16 days vs 10.

The key difference to me is the quantity of water you can see.

Because it’s longer you can also see that this pattern is not currently expected to break.

Here’s the corresponding GFS accumulated rainfall forecast.

Here are 5 day & 10 day rainfall forecasts side by side for comparison. And you can clearly see the difference.