Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Professor of demography at UCT; cricket; politics. Analyst of South African Covid testing data and excess deaths (2020-)

Jun 15, 2021, 5 tweets

Ahead of the public holiday, the @mrcza and @UCT_news collaboration have released their latest report on excess natural deaths, covering the week to 12 June. 170k since 3 May 2020, more than half of which since the start of 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…

Excess deaths in Gauteng (and Johannesburg) are rising quite steeply. Deaths in Gauteng in the week to 12 June 2021 more than 50% above expected.

Nationally, deaths in the week more than 30% higher than expected. In other provinces, natural mortality in the Northern Cape during the week is more than twice expected, for the fifth consecutive week.

On the testing side, sharp increases in proportion testing positive in the week ending 12 June 2021. In Gauteng, almost 25%, with significant increases in volumes (hence the steeper graphs of cases being circulated #onhere). PTP rising in all but two provinces (NC and FS).

The emergent third waves are clearly visible in the testing data below, with relatively higher proportions testing positive among young adults 15-24, and the elderly.

Please take care.

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