Latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa out, covering the period to 26/06/21. 176 700 excess natural deaths since 3May21; 94 000 of which since 3Jan21; and 3 900 in the last week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Much of the observed increase nationally driven by continuing increase in deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg, where the current weekly deaths are at levels similar to that observed in the first two waves.
The p-scores (observed natural deaths expressed as a percentage above expected natural deaths) show rising mortality in all provinces other than NC and FS. Nationally, deaths in the week to 26Jun21 were 42% above expected - Gauteng 136% above expected. NC and NW both above 50%.
When we look at deaths occurring (by date of death) versus the official tallies of covid deaths by province (and by reporting date), the congruence between the two series's shapes is strong, even if not in terms of their levels.
Unnatural deaths fell slightly below the expected level this week - may be an artifice of the routine adjustment for late reporting, or the real effect of the change to level 3 lockdown 2 weeks ago. Trend will become clearer with next week's data
On the testing front, proportions testing positive by age, week, and province continue to increase. Evidence of W3 now visible in every province.
Please: stay, and be, safe.
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