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Tom Moultrie Profile picture
@tomtom_m
Jun 30, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa out, covering the period to 26/06/21. 176 700 excess natural deaths since 3May21; 94 000 of which since 3Jan21; and 3 900 in the last week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Much of the observed increase nationally driven by continuing increase in deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg, where the current weekly deaths are at levels similar to that observed in the first two waves.
The p-scores (observed natural deaths expressed as a percentage above expected natural deaths) show rising mortality in all provinces other than NC and FS. Nationally, deaths in the week to 26Jun21 were 42% above expected - Gauteng 136% above expected. NC and NW both above 50%.
When we look at deaths occurring (by date of death) versus the official tallies of covid deaths by province (and by reporting date), the congruence between the two series's shapes is strong, even if not in terms of their levels.
Unnatural deaths fell slightly below the expected level this week - may be an artifice of the routine adjustment for late reporting, or the real effect of the change to level 3 lockdown 2 weeks ago. Trend will become clearer with next week's data
On the testing front, proportions testing positive by age, week, and province continue to increase. Evidence of W3 now visible in every province.
Please: stay, and be, safe.
@MRCza @UCT_news *aaargh! since 3May2020 (!!) Obvs.

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
Weekly excess deaths in South Africa. A final thread. The report released by the @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration on excess deaths in South Africa in the week to 10Dec22 was released today. The report is here:samrc.ac.za/reports/report… /1
The report is the last of 138 reports issued weekly since 30Mar20. The first report covered the period to 15Mar20, the second (on 6Apr20) the period to 31Mar20. 39 weekly reports were issued in 2020; 50 in 2021; and 49 in 2022. /2
In addition to providing data in machine readable format since 23Jun20, the collaboration has produced many technical notes, methodological reports, and explainers. /3
Read 23 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
Apologies for the delay in the weekly deaths and testing summaries - reports from @MRCza and @nicd_sa now released! (Delay due to late release of testing data).
In the week to 3Dec22, 450 excess natural deaths were recorded, bringing the total since 3May20 to 338 300.
The report is available here: The excess deaths report is here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. In the week to 3Dec22, natural deaths were 5.6% above expected, ranging from -7.6% in NC to 15.1% in EC.
As can be seen, little signal (and quite a lot of noise) in the data for some time now. Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected patterns and levels
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 27, 2022
Latest weekly @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released. 801 excess natural deaths in the week to 23Jul22; 326 000 since 3May20. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Observed natural deaths for the week were 8.7% above that expected, very slightly higher than the upper prediction bound. Provincially, p-scores range from 1.8% in NW to 24.5% in NC. (only NC and EC - 20.3% -) exceed 10% above expected.
Excess deaths are low in (almost) every age group, are negligible in and are at much lower levels than in previous waves of infection. p-scores in every age group are less than 25%,and are negative between ages 20 and 59.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_News report on excess deaths in South Africa released. Issues in the data received from Home Affairs have led to a caution being issued with this week's data. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
325k excess deaths between 3May20 and 16Jul22. While the increment in the week to 16Jul22 is low, the caution above should be borne in mind and results should not be over-interpreted; the correction will come through in due course.
Natural deaths in the week were 4.8% higher than expected (see caveat), ranging from -13.5% (NW) to +23.8% (NC).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jul 13, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa is out; covering the week to 9Jul22. 325k excess natural deaths since 3May20; 1100 in the most recent week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths of those under age 60 back to the predicted levels; those over 60 still somewhat above. Nationally, natural deaths were 12.0% above expected with most provinces close to or within the prediction range.
The p-score by age band shows that excess mortality concentrated in those aged 60+. (The odd pattern of those under 5 may reflect an earlier RSV season than anticipated, with excess mortality in past months, now reverting to baseline).
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa, covering the week to 25Jun22, released. 322419 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 1112 in the week to 25June22, the lowest since 3-9April22. Report --> samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Natural deaths in the week to 25Jun22 were 11.6% above expected, ranging from 20.1% in KZN to -3.4% in the Western Cape.
Unnatural deaths continue to stick closely to the expected numbers.
Read 7 tweets

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