Thread by @john_actuary

The latest #antibody study from @ONS is out, and shows continued increases in all four countries, with 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 now topping 90%. 👏👏

E🔼from 86.6% to 89.8%
W🔼from 88.7% to 91.8%
NI🔼from 85.4% to 87.2%
S🔼from 79.1% to 84.7%

Here's a visual summary of the last three reports.

1/

Note that although the reports are fortnightly, the last one moved the data on three weeks, this one only one week. So that's one reason why the increases are lower. Also, as we get closer to 100%, there will be a natural limit to the increase possible.

2/

You can see that in the youngest age groups, the level of antibodies is around twice the vaccination coverage, with naturally acquired antibodies making up the difference. (ie they have had COVID at some stage.)

3/

The previous report data showed that there was already a very slight reduction in levels in the 80+ group (as we saw after one dose), but encouragingly that's not present in the latest data.

4/

Curiously though, those countries with less data (and thus wider confidence intervals) all show a reduction at the oldest ages, whereas there's little sign of it in England.

5/

There's very little difference in levels by region now, with any vaccination take-up difference (notably London) offset by higher naturally acquired immunity.

6/

Report here. Note that it runs to around 3 weeks ago, so always has a lag when considering recent vaccination (and now population infection) levels.

6/6

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…