Thread by @althecat

There has been a sharp increase in discussion of climate change weather extremes in the context of the flood calamity in Western Europe, wildfires in the North West US, and the #ArabianMonsoonBurst

This thread looks at the big picture right now. What's next?

The image above from @Meteoblue shows most of the Northern Hemisphere & rainfall at the moment. The intense blobs of colour indicate high rainfall from thunderstorms.

What is immediately apparent looking at this is that there is an immediate issue now in the West Pacific.

What will soon be Typhoon In-Ha is forecast to make landfall in Taiwan and then stall bringing massive rainfall to the Philippines, China and Taiwan.

There is second tropical storm to the left of what will soon be In-ha which is simultaneously bringing extreme weather to HK.

Here's another view of IN-FA from the Joint Typhoon warning center. This is a very large very wet cyclone.

This is today's forecast path for the storm.

But what is particularly unusual about this storm is its wider context, it is imbedded in the middle of a monsoonal traffic-jam.

The animation above is the latest GFS precipitable water simulation for the Western Pacific. The details may change. But the set up is clear. A massive area of low pressure is forecast, with very high levels of moisture.

There are three typhoons in this forecast, two of them huge. And the picture at the end is littered with low pressure systems which could also develop into tropical storms.

This graphic shows forecast rainfall over this period (also from the GFS 16-day model).