Thread by @AllenAu11

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟮𝟴 & 𝟮𝟵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭

𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked yet.

Did a deep dive into some metrics to show BTC isn't in its bear phase. If it was, it's bottomed & would move higher!

There's been endless debates if #BTC is in its bear phase. As I’ve tweeted many times, BTC has been in a mid-cycle correction. To put this issue to bed, I’ll do a deep dive into a few BTC’s Peak Indicators that seem to be flashing bearishness when they aren't.

𝗮. 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲
As this metric has recently peaked near the pink zone, #BTC is in its bear phase.

It's been 156 days since this metric peaked on 2/21/21. In past bear phases, this metric would've values <1. The lowest so far is 1.09 in the current cycle.

𝗯.𝟭-𝗬𝗿+ 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲
As this metric has a value similar to that at the bottom of the past bear phases, #BTC is in its bear phase.

This metric should be below the red line as BTC peaks. This hasn't occurred. If BTC was in its bear phase, it should've bottomed! Then, 📈.

𝗰. 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲
As this metric has dropped to the green zone, #BTC is in its bear phase.

During the COVID crash, this metric dipped into the green zone, but BTC wasn't in its bear phase. The recent plunge of this metric to the green zone was technical & brief.👇

𝟭. 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (>𝟳.𝟱): 𝗡𝗼

7/18/21 Value: 1.21
7/25/21 Value: 1.54

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, MVRV-Z Score will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.

𝟮. 𝟭-𝗬𝗿+ 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 (~𝟰𝟳%): 𝗡𝗼

7/18/21 Value: 52%
7/25/21 Value: 51%

𝟯. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟮): 𝗡𝗼

7/18/21 & 7/25/21 Value: 0.003*

* This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2017.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Reserve Risk will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.

𝟰. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 (𝗥𝗛𝗥) (>𝟰𝟬𝗞): 𝗡𝗼

7/18/21 Value: 5463*
7/25/21 Value: 5218

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, RHR will go to the pink zone first & then trend downward. This hasn't occurred yet.

𝟱. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀 (𝟯𝗿𝗱 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲):
𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟭

* It looks like RC HODL Waves will be entering Wave 2 soon and this will be accompanied by the next leg up in #BTC's bull phase.

𝟲. 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (>𝟰): 𝗡𝗼

7/18/21 Value: 1.05
7/25/21 Value: 1.19

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Puell Multiple will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.

𝟳. 𝗡𝗨𝗣𝗟 (𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗲): 𝗡𝗼 𝗘𝘂𝗽𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮

7/18/21 Value: 0.39 (Yellow)
7/25/31 Value: 0.45 (Yellow)*

* This value similar to that when #BTC was just off its low in the mid-cycle correction in 2013.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, NUPL will be in Euphoria first.