When will #BTC's correction be over? How low could its price get?

1. Bull market isn't over as fundamentals are strong
2. BTC is in another mid-cycle correction
3. If $40K-$41K support is breached, BTC could fall to $29K-$37K by end of Jan. 2022, but would quickly rebound >$40K 1. #BTC's fundamentals as reflected by key on-chain data are strong. Hash rate has reached a new ATH. LT HODLers continue to hold onto their BTC despite BTC's recent correction. Supply dynamics favor a continuation of the bull run rather than BTC diving into a bear phase.

#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board

TLDR:
1. The Dash Board is revamped with the update of the BLX & Top Cap models & the intro. of LGC model

2. 4 models to better gauge peak timing

3. Projected Cycle Peak

Timing: 2nd-3rd Qtr. 2022
Price: $100K-$200K
Hopium Price: $320K 1a/ The #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board is revamped with the update of the Top Cap & BLX Models.

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1481721722093334528

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1478776021008539649

#BTC is finally rebounding, but how high could its price get?

TLDR:
If impulse move plays out:
High: $74K
Middle: $62-$64K
Low: $46K-$51K
Timing: Mid-Jan. to End of Mar. 2022

If move fails, BTC could test $32K-$37K
Timing: Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb. 2022 1a/ Parallel channel breakout

If #BTC breaks out from its downward sloping parallel channel, it could have a price increase of $17.2K from the point of breakout. If there is a confirmed break of the upper channel (~$44.5K), the target price is ~$62K.

Strong resistance at $46K.

The following #BTC peak model with time-based Fib is inspired by @TechDev_52 who combines BTC log growth curves with Fib levels on a 2-week BTC chart.

TLDR:
BTC Cycle Peak
Price:
- High: $180K
- Middle: $120K
- Low: $96K
Time: 2nd Qtr. '22

2.618 Fib: $370K (1st Qtr. '24)? 1a/This model (LGC) is constructed on Tradingview with #BTC log growth curves developed by @quantadelic with log Fib levels & time-based Fib zones added on a 2-week BTC chart. This is similar to TechDev’s chart, but the cycle peak log Fib level is at 2.618 & not 2.272.

Some people are calling a giant head & should pattern for #BTC with a target price of $10K-$18K. Possible, but highly unlikely! Why?

TLDR:
1. US10Y: Bullish
2. BTC Futures: Bullish
3. BTC Options Bullish
4. Technicals: BTC could grind down to $40K-$41K & then rebound to $64K 1a/ #BTC's price has been highly correlated with US10Y & they had moved in lock-steps since 11/8/21 until last week. Traders risked off ahead of the Fed minutes & sold stocks & BTC.

UPDATE: BLX Cycle Peak Model

#BTC again closed below the arc of the BLX model on 12/31/21 so that invalidated 1/9/22 & $350K peak predictions.

Started afresh, fixed model & found 2 numbers: 608 & 2191.

TLDR:
1. Cycle Peak Price
- $325K (Best case)
- $95K-$155K (Base case)
👇 TLDR (Cont...)

2. Projected Peak Timing: Early 2nd Qtr. 2022
3. Model points to lengthening of cycle
4. Projected next cycle peak in late 3rd Qtr. 2026 when hyperbitcoinization may occur

#BTC 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲𝘀

TLDR:
1. HODL Wave Cycles have co-existed with halving driven 4-year cycles, but could better determine BTC's price action in the future
2. LT HODL waves point to a longer cycle & may be lower returns
3. Cycle peak: End of 1st/2nd Qtr. 2022? 1/ Cycles of long-term (LT) HODL waves (those who HODL #BTC for >=6 mo.) have always co-existed with the 4-year halving driven cycle & have been driving BTC’s price action.

Explanation of HODL Waves: academy.glassnode.com/supply/hodl/ho…

#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board
12/5/21

Please read:

- 2nd tweet to see where #BTC is at in this bull phase
- 3rd tweet on charts of the 3 BTC cycle peak models
- 4th tweet for Q&A
- Pinned tweet 2(i) & No. 9 for details about timing the peak & dash board make-up respectively Where is #BTC currently at in its bull phase?

Watching if Wave 6 low is in in light of the recent 39% correction.

Perspective:

Wave 6 to Price
Cycle Peak Increase
2013 20 days 4.4X
2017 36 days 3.5X

#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board
12/4/21

Please read:

- 2nd tweet to see where #BTC is at in this bull phase
- 3rd tweet on charts of the 3 BTC cycle peak models
- 4th tweet for Q&A
- Pinned tweet 2(i) & No. 9 for details about timing the peak & dash board make-up respectively Where is #BTC currently at in its bull phase?

Watching if Wave 6 low is in in light of the recent 39% correction.

Perspective:

Wave 6 to Price
Cycle Peak Increase
2013 20 days 4.4X
2017 36 days 3.5X

#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board
12/3/21

Please read:

- 2nd tweet to see where #BTC is at in this bull phase
- 3rd tweet on charts of the 3 BTC cycle peak models
- 4th tweet for Q&A
- Pinned tweet 2(i) & No. 9 for details about timing the peak & dash board make-up respectively Where is #BTC in the its bull phase?

Watching if Wave 6 low is in in light of the recent 39% correction.

Perspective:

Wave 6 to Price
Cycle Peak Increase
2013 20 days 4.4X
2017 36 days 3.5X

Is #BTC’s cycle top in or it just had a major correction? I use on-chain, derivatives & TA to check.

TLDR:
On-chain: Cycle top not in. Correction
Derivatives: Big reset, trend still bullish
TA: Not bearish if zoom out. Upward trend intact. Bear trap? If so, target is $56K/$78K 1/ On-chain
a. 30-day SMA of MVRV-Z Score, Reserve Risk & Puell Multiple

These are key metrics as they show a 5-wave pattern to #BTC's cycle peak in the past.

As these metrics haven't fallen below the Wave 4 low & not in the pink zone, #BTC's bull phase is still intact.

#BTC had a 15% correction from its ATH. Is the cycle peak in?

Nope! Based on past cycles, BTC is at Wave 6 & if its low is in, BTC could be onto Wave 7📈soon!

TLDR:
Wave 5 Peak: $69K
Wave 6 Low: $58.6K? Lowest: ~$53K
Peak Timing: December 2021
Cycle Peak: ~$190K-$260K 1. #BTC didn't reach its bull flag price target of $71K. As it broke Trend Line A, Wave 5 Peak (#CTM Wave 2 peak) is in.

Based on past cycles, the correction from Wave 5 to 6 is 27%-30%. As Wave 5 peak is lower than past cycles', Wave 6 low could be in. Lowest is >$53K. Why?

I will be posting a #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board which contains information about:

1. On-chain peaking indicator
2. Countdown to projected cycle peak
3. Projected cycle peak prices & price gauges for:
a. Top Cap Model Rebuild
b. Fib Multipliers
c. BLX Model Notes:
1. On-chain peaking indicators

Peaking indicator shows whether #BTC is peaking but doesn't give the timing. The closer the gauge is to 100%, the more likely BTC is peaking;

In ref. to 2017 Peak & In ref. to 2013 Peak shows how BTC performs in relation to past cycles.

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR:📈
1. Miner metrics- Mod. Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish 𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a. Hash Rate

Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. After reaching the top part of the channel, it got rejected & is consolidating around the bottom of the channel. Let's see if will rebound from here.

Slightly bearish.

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.

BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon. The missing #BTC on-chain peak indicators🧵👇

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗸𝘀 𝟰𝟭 & 𝟰𝟮 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.

5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak. 𝟭 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 & 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

A tale of 3 adjoined arcs

#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.

TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K 1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.

The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.

#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?

TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish 1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.

Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.

TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K? 1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.

medium.com/@adamant_capit…

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish 𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 (𝟭𝟭 this wk)

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.

*👇 𝟭 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 & 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.