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Analysis: #Bitstamp #BTC #BTCUSD

Case 44 #Bitcoin

DISCLAIMER: The analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as an invitation to trade.

Thread 👇👇👇

BTC 1/7
Since it's 2018 peak Bitcoin has lost much of its upside momentum, but the long term trend remains firmly bullish.

BTC 2/7
Chart 1
Monthly Chart: Price is trading above the #SMA 20 and 10. The main #pivot resistances can be viewed, a monthly close above is required to gain upside traction. Firm #trendline support can be seen at approximately 4450.

BTC 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Are some days better than others for trading @bitcoin and other #crypto?

If so, how does trading $BTC only on (historically) the best days compare to simply #HODLing?

Check out our full analysis here!

[explanation continued in comments]
2/ To answer the above, we started by calculating the average $BTC price returns for each day of the week, including weekends.

Here are the average log returns for Bitcoin from 2017 until present day:
3/ We can see major differences between days:

Monday and Saturday emerge as clear winners, with average returns of +0.69% and +0.5%, respectively.
Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday all returned neg. values for the past 2 years. To date, Weds proved to be the worst performing day.
Read 18 tweets
#Bombshell: Ex-#DisneyStudios CEO, #RichardCook was found on the flight logs for #JeffreyEpstein’s #LolitaExpress to travel to #LittleSaintJames. #Disney owns #ABC who buried #Epstein’s crimes while children got raped & murdered! Cook started #Legendary pictures owned by #China!
I definitely think there is something fishy here. #DickCook started off as a monorail operator at #Disneyland. How does someone go from running a train at an amusement park to heading distribution for Disney films within 10 years? Are they promoting #Pedophiles from within?!
Correction to the original tweet, #DickCook started #DickCookStudios w #China and worked with #LegendaryPictures in 2011 after #Disney.
Read 30 tweets
@digitalassetbuy @bgarlinghouse @chrislarsensf @Ripple 1 of 5
Think about it. Ripple has one company running in Luxembourg which is called Ripple Luxembourg S.A.
For the year ended 2018 Ripple Luxembourg S.A. reported EUR 529,630.89 in total assets and has a net equity of EUR 91,220.09. The loss for the year was EUR 7,730.26.
@digitalassetbuy @bgarlinghouse @chrislarsensf @Ripple 2 of 5
Is this entity of any significance to the Luxembourg economy? The local comer shop make more profit and has more assets on the balance sheet; never the less the Luxembourg Finance Minister is travelling to San Francisco to meet with this very own company?
@digitalassetbuy @bgarlinghouse @chrislarsensf @Ripple 3 of 5
What is wrong in this picture? This does not make sense, and if something doesn’t make sense, then we most certainly don’t know the full picture. If people would pay more attention, then the price would go nuts of pure speculation.
Read 5 tweets
.@repfranklucas makes the obvious point that one of the issue with people being "underbanked" is lack of institutional trust. He asks Zuck why people who are distrustful of banks would trust FB. Zuck - in contradiction of earlier media statements - basically says people trust FB.
@RepFrankLucas .@RepGregoryMeeks asks Zuckerberg if FB has worked with any minority-development depository institutions, given that he cares about the "unbanked" so much.

Zuckerberg admits he has no idea if FB has done this.

#ZuckBuck #BigTechTakeover
@RepFrankLucas @RepGregoryMeeks #Libra does not offer bank accounts.

#Libra does not offer bank accounts.

#Libra does not offer bank accounts.

#Libra does not offer bank accounts.

Stop it.

#ZuckBuck #BigTechTakeover
Read 96 tweets
$XRP Where my buy levels are set. Big Bearish Divergences on the H4; Looking oversold for now. If you are a HODL'r, this is of no concern; solely for traders. Yes, I'm charting against USD. $BTC is in a downtrend. Chart USD in btc's downtrend, against #BTC in a btc uptrend. #xrp
And further; everyone and their mother is bullish on XRP right now. Guess what that typically indicates with price. 📉Again, if you are a HODL'r, ignore this. My posts are intended for traders looking for the best entries. #xrp $xrp #btc $btc #xrpthestandard
$XRP Update: Playing out as expected. The drop in #xrp was a bit clearer than $btc due to the massive bearish divergence (hard to ignore). Big brother #btc might get me my bids sooner than later. Hoping the lowest bids get hit. Will be a great spot to long.
Read 4 tweets
1/ The gap between the "rich" and the 'non-rich' has nothing to do with taxes and everything to do with monetary policy. This is critical to understand, especially with presidential candidates calling for socialist policies in the U.S.
2/ In the past 10 yrs the Fed has flooded the market with dollars. The amount of US dollars in circulation has doubled in the past decade. DOUBLED.
3/ The idea is to spur economic activity and, yes, banks loan some money to businesses that invest in growth, job creation, etc

But there is limited supply of good businesses needing loans. Much of the money ends up invested in asset classes like real estate, equities, PE/VC etc
Read 17 tweets
$BTC Daily - Pretty straight forward. This is a textbook area to long as a swing trader. People wait patiently for this opportunity. You enter the long, with proper R:R on the trade; adhere to the stop-loss. That simple. This is as solid an entry spot for longing as possible #btc
$BTC Support level currently at still looks fantastic for a swing long. We look for clues to give our bias. Bias here clearly favors long. Set a tight stop loss of a close below 7700 & play the math game here. R:R is your friend. #btc #bullishSwingPlay
People are freaking right now. But remember; anything to and above 7700 is just fine for now. Keep calm and let the numbers be your emotional control.
Read 15 tweets
1/ I am studying #Decred in the context of #Bitcoin in the early days.

I aim to assess the following:
- Compare $DCR and $BTC supply characteristics
- Performance of #DCR compared to young #BTC
- Decred unforgeable costliness
- Mathematical rigor for $DCR S2F model

Prelim ideas
2/ #Decred launched in Aug 2016 (~ BTC block 33600).

Given similar supply curve, I have offset $DCR performance by 33,600 BTC blocks and plotted as if #Decred launched side by side with #Bitcoin.

Unsurprisingly, #Decred behaves much like a 'smooth' #Bitcoin without halvings.
3/ Plan B established the invaluable and statistically valid S2F model for $BTC.

Key difference between scarcity of $DCR and $BTC is #Bitcoin immaculate conception, time alive (network effect) and block reward distribution.

21Million, predefined schedule and S2F path are equal.
Read 8 tweets
1/3 #GigFair is an exciting new platform launching in 2019 that will allow anyone in the world to work in the global digital economy.
#electroneum #etn #blockchain #fintech #crypto #cryptocurrency #Criptomonedas #massiveadoption #bitcoin #btc #tothemoon #hold
2/3 "Gigs" are items of digital work, carried out remotely. The current global digital economy is estimated to be over $4 trillion US dollars per year, yet the current global gig economy is staffed almost entirely by individuals who have a bank account.
3/3 The concept is simple. By allowing customers to buy "gigs" with their credit cards in USD it makes it easy to buy work. These funds are cleverly converted into ETN (a mobile cryptocurrency called Electroneum) and transferred to the worker carrying out the "Gig".
Read 3 tweets
1/Acc. to @DoveyWan, who has a good prior track record of CT #China insights, and @PandaofBinance the recent #BTC dump could be attributed to a Chinese Ponzi scheme #PlusToken selling tens of 000s of BTC:

2/The list of addresses mentioned in the story(total ~276k BTC received,last txs>0.01 BTC):
A (last tx 31-07-2019)…
B (last tx 26-05-2019)…
C (last tx 13-08-2019)…
D (last tx 04-04-2019)…
3/According to data by @CrystalPlatform wallet A belongs to @BixinIM bitcoin hosted wallet provider. It has been created 4 years ago, which is much longer than PlusToken exists.
Read 10 tweets
Alright let's get this through.
My key takeaways from the latest @OwnMarket AMA, and why they make me more bullish than before.

18 tweets so stay focused. 😉

Let's go:

$CHX #STO #securitytokens #Blockchain #Crypto #Bitcoin #Exchanges #gaming #mobilegames #ETH #investing
Let's start with the big one. The first STO (project Crowd) is now confirmed to launch its raise in September, this will be accompanied with a huge marketing campaign.
Remember for every #STO, $CHX gets locked away depending on the total raise.
1 month to go 😎
OWN now has officially signed a cooperation with Raiffeisen Bank who will support them in the STO space and also with their upcoming Stock exchange.
This is an impressive bank with over 2 million customers which has received several "best bank" Awards. #banking #crypto $CHX
Read 18 tweets
The open-source ball is rolling again!

@braiins just unveiled their new plans for a complete and fully transparent #BTC mining stack upgrade, featuring a fully transparent mining stack, including mining software and a new mining protocol — Stratum V2.
@braiins 2/ Mining has always been difficult for me to understand but when @fluffypony, @WhalePanda, @SatoshiLite & @Excellion threw me into moderating the mining panel at #MCC, I started researching like a maniac… and got hooked
@braiins @fluffypony @WhalePanda @SatoshiLite @Excellion 3/ Albeit, I was already pretty hooked & dead set on getting my miner up and running about @janbraiins' demo in Malta at @ToneVays & @Blockstream @UnderstandBit
but was still a complete noob (still am, but trying)
Read 14 tweets
@c_ehrbar Laugh all you want, I look at every timeframe on everything that I'm concerned with. I chose the 1H timeframe here, and even the 3m too on a facebook post, to serve as a "before" image if/when it plays out as quickly as expected. Then I can make something like this yet again.
@c_ehrbar An example of higher timeframe context that I've been providing... Notice how nicely it bounced from the .886 retracement 125 days after I posted it.…

#StockMarket $DJI $NDX $SPX $SPY
@c_ehrbar I use that along with my analysis on #bitcoin itself, the individual indices, my "sum of that american indices divided by the price of gold" private chart, and several others to be almost certain of my medium-term scenario playing out, just as I was about #bitcoin goin up from 3k
Read 6 tweets
#BTC #Bitcoin Introduction Guide:

(1) Buy & Read:
* "The Bitcoin Standard" by @saifedean

(2) Listen:
* Interview by @stephanlivera with Saifedean Ammous (helps clarify "The Bitcoin Standard" for you)
(3) Read:…
* @real_vijay's "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin"

(4) Listen:
* @stephanlivera interviews Vijay Boyapati (author of "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin")
(5) Listen:
* Stephan Livera gives a beginning education on true economics = "Austrian Economics"

(6) Listen:
* Understanding the Bitcoin Ecosystem with Jeff @theonevortex
Read 10 tweets
A @chainalysis employee goes rogue, AMA on @RedditBTC, Deletes it

Few takes:
-run your own server, ALWAYS USE TOR/VPN
-Chainalysis runs @ElectrumWallet servers
-If you connect to a Chainalysis server they download+log your addresses
-Avoid mobile wallets
-Top 5 Flag reasons - Being stolen funds, dnm, mixer, terrorist financing, ransomware payout addresses
-With @coinjoin and @wasabiwallet company viability is very low.
-Probable ISP connections in EU
-US Gov and exchanges are the biggest clients
-Probably 100s caught by law enforcement using their tech
--most Exchanges don't share KYC, but UserIDs
-LN makes tracking difficult
- Sending #btc to yourself to try and mask things with hops doesn't really work, Ehm @aantonop
Read 4 tweets
#BTC soran arkadaşlar: Böyle sayıyorum. Kısa vadede yükseliş muhtemelen sona ermek üzere. Ancak orta vadede (muhtemelen 6.500-7.000'e kadar) geri çekilip bir atak daha (muhtemelen 13.650) yapmasını beklerim. Bence [Y] düşüşü öncesinde [X] içinde. Bu pilav daha çok su kaldırır.
Çok nadir BTC yorumu yapıyorum, son yorumum şuydu:…
Read 6 tweets
1/Last week's №1news was not the >10kBTC breakout or #Facebook's #Libra announcement, but release of the #FATF(Financial Action Task Force) Guidance on Virtual Assets(VAs) and Virtual Asset Service Providers(VASPs, anyone professionally dealing with crypto, inc. natural persons)
2/Libra and FATF news represent the "old", centralised world's most powerful-yet attempts at fencing the global crypto phenomenon. One year US Presidency in FATF ending Jun30, effectively helped extend the recent FinCen crypto guidance ( globally
3/And market clearly isn't yet pricing in any of the potential outcomes entailed in this development.We suggest monitoring it in the context of state-by-state implementations, which will end up harmonised - i.e. similar. Here's what we wrote to our Research subscribers in March
Read 19 tweets
Will history repeat itself? The @TraceMayer Multiple indicated 4 major trend changes during the last two cycles: (1) Cycle low, (2) Correction #1, (3) Correction #2, (4) Cycle top. If history repeats, we might be close to Correction #1 at around $13k.

#BTC #Bitcoin

Thread 👇
1/ During the last two bull markets, 3 of the 4 major corrections came in exactly at 2.5x the 200 DMA. Assuming that the low is in at $3150 and we are in a bull market, a current 200 DMA of $5070, suggests Correction #1 to take place at around $12,7k. Considering that
2/ the 200 DMA keeps increasing on the way up to 2.5x, the more realistic target would probably be around $13k. What would be the retracement target? During the last bull run, Correction #1 and #2 both came in at around 40%. This would put the downside target at around $7.8k.
Read 26 tweets
So historically, #BTC retests the ATH AFTER the halving event. This is interesting. If we get $20k before the halving it would lead me to believe the top comes sooner and the cycle will be shorter. Something to keep an eye on.
Read 3 tweets
1/ 6 PREDICTIONS about what @Facebook's #cryptocurrency means. Grab the popcorn bc I analyzed publicly disclosed info to make 6 predictions, of which 2 will be controversial (#2 and #6). @ForbesCrypto #Libra #bitcoin…
2/ First prediction: @Facebook's #stablecoin will be a positive force in developing countries. Second: @Facebook will pay #interest to users of its #cryptocurrency, which will eventually lead to populist calls to repeal subsidies at the heart of the US banking system.
3/ It's true that #stablecoin issuers generally pocket the float on the assets backing the coins, but I go out on a limb & predict there's no way @Facebook will be able to pocket these big profits w/o sharing them with users. To be clear I haven't seen @Facebook disclose this.
Read 11 tweets
$BTC vs $USD pairs

How to play?

BTC Up-Trend = Play USD Pairs

BTC Down Trend = Play BTC Pairs

BTC sideways = Play Both

BTC indecisive = Be selective & be prepared to jump either ways on short notice

This is relevant if #Bitcoin Dominance is high & rising up

Thread / 2
If #Bitcoin dominance is diminishing & on its way down, we can play:

$BTC Up-Trend = Up-Trending ALTs with stronger trends than BTC can offer higher profits in USD terms. You get the benefit from BTC up trend + ALTs uptrend

Thread / 3
If #Bitcoin dominance is diminishing

#BTC down trend = Play BTC paired ALTs with strong up-trends. This will help you to beat negative BTC returns & accumulate more #Bitcoins

#BTC sideways = Play whatever is trending

#BTC indecisive = Be prepared to jump either ways

Read 9 tweets
Did #hyperwave fail? Is #BTC still in a Hyperwave? And why are we now buying when we said it was going to $1k?

Let us try to answer the great Qs that @LucidInvestment, @Sawcruhteez and I have received below, in a true Bitcoiner style... a tweet storm ⛈
2/ Hyperwave didn’t just call for a return to Phase 1 at $1,000, it called for a buy in the $3,200 neighborhood and a sell above $18k. While it appears that a bottom was found before reaching the final $1,000 target that does not imply that Hyperwave failed
3/ Following the rules led to drastically outperforming the markets ROI since 2017 and it protected investors from the downside that followed.

But is bitcoin still in a Hyperwave?
The BTC Hyperwave is still in effect until a new all time high is reached.
Read 20 tweets
ALTs update

#USD paired ALTs are pumping, mostly thx to $BTC pump against #USD

$BTC paired ALTs continued to struggle but are showing bottoming process for last few days

Here is how to play ALTs:

Check the Thread /2
If you are into $BTC you may flip your #BTC position for ALTs for next few days if #Bitcoin struggles against key resistance & can’t post higher highs in next few days

Which ALTs to choose ?

2 setups

Trend Continuation
Trend Reversal

I prefer 1st one, let’s discuss both /3
Trend Continuation is relevant for those ALTs which are still trending up against $BTC

There aren’t many, but handful of them like #LTC #BNB are taking a breather against $BTC But May find a support & eventually pump again

What about Trend Reversal? /4
Read 9 tweets

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