This seems to be the leaked data the CDC used to change the mask mandate this week:
context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/def…
There's a lot to dig in here but a few things that jump out about Delta particularly:
1/
Delta objectively spreads faster than the original COVID strain. The original strain was less transmissible than polio & smallpox; Delta is more transmissible than those as well as Ebola, MERS, SARS, & the Spanish Flu.
Delta is *as* transmissible as chicken pox.
2/
Delta is associated with a higher viral load and longer duration of shedding.
3/
A big one: breakthrough cases from Delta may be as transmissible as unvaccinated cases.
4/
Data suggesting that Delta may cause more severe disease.
5/
Some preliminary data show that the vaccines may be less protective against non-hospitalized symptomatic infections of Delta. (This is bad news & will likely mean more #LongCOVID cases.)
6/
From the CDC's model, Delta cannot be controlled without universal masking!
This seems to be where their change in policy is coming from.
7/
Finally, a list of much needed changes to public communication from the CDC, including to "acknowledge the war has changed". Delta is different & concerning, and vaccinated individuals still are at risk.
8/
In short: we are not through the woods, and the CDC's de-masking recommendations came too early.
Everyone should return to masking & should be aware that being vaccinated can't be the sole means of protection on its own, but instead used alongside other precautions.
9/
Vaccinated individuals are less likely to be hospitalized & die, but with Delta they risk transmitting COVID to others, including unvaccinated kids (who seem to be at greater risk from Delta).
They also remain at risk of contracting #LongCOVID from breakthrough infections.
10/
A very relevant thread to end on:
11/
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