Of all the covid metrics out there, I think the most useful right now are hospital admissions for 40-49s. That seems to be the age group hit hardest compared to earlier waves, bc over 50s are more likely to be vaccinated everywhere. CDC tracks them here. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Here are four states experiencing high or recent "case" increases. Compare the 40-49 hosp admissions: Missouri, Louisiana, Massachusetts and Illinois
The worst is Florida. 7.73 per 100k at that age group is horrible. In every state this metric is climbing a bit. FL's vax numbers are average, not low. Only in states with very high vaccination rates for younger and middle age adults will the UK-style decoupling happen.
Every state reporting on this has mentioned that nearly 100% of the hospitalized under 50 are unvaccinated. The exceptions are immunocompromised people. But again, Florida isn't Arkansas when it comes to vax levels.
Hospitalization age data from Orange County, Florida backs up the CDC data:
In fact, 30-39s are at higher risk with Delta too, both compared to earlier waves and as a percentage of the 30-39 population. And even the 20s are very high, esp. compared to normal hospitalization for that age group. Florida again:
Delta will peak fairly soon in Florida, and then it will probably crash quickly as it has done in other countries. But a lot of serious and unnecessary damage will have been inflicted on adults, aged 30-50, who didn't get vaccinated because they didn't think it was necessary.
Should we look at cases? Sort of, but not as much as before. The decoupling between cases and hospitalizations/fatalities will show up in older age cohorts. Bigger challenge is for immunocompromised for whom vaccines only provide modest protection - cases go ⬆️, it's a problem.
The UK shows the way forward. Cases shot up and are now crashing down. Hospitalizations and fatalities nothing like earlier big waves. Decoupling. And they opened up in the middle of it! But that only happens when enough of the population is immune.
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