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Aaron Astor Profile picture
@AstorAaron
Aug 1, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Of all the covid metrics out there, I think the most useful right now are hospital admissions for 40-49s. That seems to be the age group hit hardest compared to earlier waves, bc over 50s are more likely to be vaccinated everywhere. CDC tracks them here. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Here are four states experiencing high or recent "case" increases. Compare the 40-49 hosp admissions: Missouri, Louisiana, Massachusetts and Illinois
The worst is Florida. 7.73 per 100k at that age group is horrible. In every state this metric is climbing a bit. FL's vax numbers are average, not low. Only in states with very high vaccination rates for younger and middle age adults will the UK-style decoupling happen.
Every state reporting on this has mentioned that nearly 100% of the hospitalized under 50 are unvaccinated. The exceptions are immunocompromised people. But again, Florida isn't Arkansas when it comes to vax levels.
Hospitalization age data from Orange County, Florida backs up the CDC data:
In fact, 30-39s are at higher risk with Delta too, both compared to earlier waves and as a percentage of the 30-39 population. And even the 20s are very high, esp. compared to normal hospitalization for that age group. Florida again:
Delta will peak fairly soon in Florida, and then it will probably crash quickly as it has done in other countries. But a lot of serious and unnecessary damage will have been inflicted on adults, aged 30-50, who didn't get vaccinated because they didn't think it was necessary.
Should we look at cases? Sort of, but not as much as before. The decoupling between cases and hospitalizations/fatalities will show up in older age cohorts. Bigger challenge is for immunocompromised for whom vaccines only provide modest protection - cases go ⬆️, it's a problem.
The UK shows the way forward. Cases shot up and are now crashing down. Hospitalizations and fatalities nothing like earlier big waves. Decoupling. And they opened up in the middle of it! But that only happens when enough of the population is immune.

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More from @AstorAaron

Aaron Astor Profile picture
Mar 2
Just curious but what is the typical percentage of a Presidential election that did not vote in the prior Presidential election? 2020 was the highest turnout in a century, BTW. This NYT poll suggests that 17% of 2024 voters didn't vote at all in 2020. Is that...high? Image
Look in the right-most column for "did not vote in 2020".
On the flip side, the recalled 2020 vote is much more pro-Biden than it actually was. So maybe they tried to correct for that in weighting? I don't know. I know that recalled vote preference is often wrong, but I'm not sure about recalling whether you voted at all is wrong.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Dec 28, 2023
A sudden reminder that the Republican Party was actually founded under an oak tree in Jackson, Michigan or at a little schoolhouse in Ripon, Wisconsin or at a thousand "Anti-Nebraska" meetings in the Spring of 1854. Some in places like Berlin, New Hampshire.
They were former Whigs, former Democrats and former Liberty party people who agreed on one thing: slavery shall not extend any further. They organized against what they called "The Slave Power," which controlled the Democratic Party (thanks partly to a 2/3 nominating rule).
In defense of slavery, first and foremost, was South Carolina. From Pierce Butler to Robert Hayne to John C. Calhoun to George McDuffie to Robert Barnwell Rhett, South Carolina's leaders made clear that a threat to the future of slavery meant the Union shall be dissolved.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Nov 5, 2023
This is the biggest problem with a lot of the discourse around any one state plan in Israel-Palestine. Does the acceptable plan in the West - secular, binational, robust civil rights for all - have sizable support among either Israelis or Palestinians?
Personally, I could accept this as much as I can a true two-state solution. But how many Palestinians want this? How many Israelis? As mangled and flawed as the Oslo plan was, there are still more people who support THAT in I-P than the Western-style secular lib/dem one state.
One argument is that the current leadership on both sides is adamantly opposed to this - or a two-state solution - but that maybe after the war, both extremes will be jettisoned and a "silent majority" of moderates will push a singular secular, binational, liberal state. Will it?
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Nov 1, 2023
"Proportionality" in war: “expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated”. ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treatie…
Proportionality, thus, is not necessarily about comparing numbers of civilian deaths. It has to do with "direct military advantage anticipated" per Geneva Conventions Article 51. Sections 5-7 are instructive in full: Image
Sec 7 addresses human shields, the use of which clearly constitutes a war crime (Note: war crime by one party does not allow war crimes by other party). So the question of proportionality stands - what is the military objective & are civilian deaths "excessive" in relation to it?
Read 9 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Oct 26, 2023
If Palestinians are to be liberated from the “settler-colony” that is Israel, you need to orient your message toward the metropole - which means the US public. The language matters. So if you have to explain why “From the River to the Sea” isn’t actually genocide, you’re losing.
Nobody is going to settle this conflict through force alone. There is a propaganda war. And that means paying attention to different audiences. A Hamas slogan is going to backfire in the US - in fact, it’s a reason support for Israel keeps going up in the US weeks after Oct 7.
The headwinds for the Palestinian cause in the US are massive and generally well known. Navigating them is difficult - though not impossible. But that means no longer “preaching to the converted” with purist militant slogans.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Oct 10, 2023
[Thread} We hear a lot about putting the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict in historical context. As a historian, I couldn't agree more. But, there is not one single historical context. I would argue that there are three, and all three affect the present: Old, Middle & Recent.
The Old Context goes from Canaan to the Ancient Hebrews to the Roman destruction of the Second Temple and subsequent Jewish Diaspora. And then there was the the arrival of the Arabs, the Crusades and the Ottoman conquest of the Levant.
The Middle Context begins in the 1880s with the emergence of two distinct nationalisms: Zionism (emerging in the Russian Empire) and Pan-Arabism. The Balfour Declaration of 1917 tried to reconcile both but led to tension and violence in the interwar decades.
Read 9 tweets

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