Thread by @therealarod1984

8/4 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Virtually the same highlights as yesterday (see Q/T below). This next week we are going to see the highest case & hospitalization growth rates of the curve, before it starts to crest mid-month. Hold on tight.

1/n
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8/4 Positivity Rate:

* Antigen pos% still in post-peak, even if flat yesterday. Will be surprised if peak doesn't hold.
* PCR still in-peak. Yesterday's revisions nudged it up, but now 6 days with virtually no growth rate.

2/n
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8/4 Cases:

Another huge day on raw case counts, mostly driven by big testing numbers, way more testing than during last year's wave. (Hence why Positivity is only 17+%. Last year hit 20%)

15K cases reported today, way ahead of 2020. #casedemic continues.

3/n
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8/4 Hospitalizations:

Patients tagged as C19 still in only the 11% range of total beds in the state, and continues to run behind 2020. Especially ICU. 16% fewer ICU patients this wave than 2020 Summer. As per 1/n, this week will see the highest growth rates of the wave.

4/n

8/4 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers through July 13. Again comparing two waves that started 13 months apart to the day.
* Continue to see 2020 Actuals outpacing 2021 Projected by a significant margin.

5/n
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8/4 Fatalities Part 2:

* 60 reported fatalities
* Only 1 more reported than last Wednesday.
* Again, either ancient or within last 2 weeks. This has been consistent, & has forced me to consistently revise downwards.
* Virtually nothing for the 1st half of July.

6/n
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8/4 - Primer for background info on Fatality computations and modeling, and why I'm asserting 2021 is thus far not as lethal as 2020...

7/n
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8/4 Conclusion:

* Antigen stays in post-peak, PCR lack of growth indicates its in-peak
* vs 2020 Summer - Cases ahead, hospitalizations & fatalities behind. Same ole
* Hang on to your hats, this week is going to be the worst of it for cases & hosps before it tops out

8/end