Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #casedemic

Most recents (24)

1/30 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis


Now that we are on the backside of this wave, we can start to focus on severe outcomes and comparisons to previous waves. Well look at

* General Hospitalizations
* Vents
* Fatalities

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* Obviously the 2021 Winter Wave was nothing like we've seen before in regards to Cases
* However, general hospitalizations peaked slightly below the previous 2 waves

1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

* If we eliminate cases, the hospitalization metrics become clear
* Left axis = gen hospitalizations
* Right axis = ICU, Vents, Fatalities
* While Gen hosps are similar, ICU/Vents are going to peak SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous two waves

Read 9 tweets
1/6 Texas C19 Update: Still going


* Maybe seeing a peak form for combined positivity rate
* Day 6 of huge case numbers, a record 7DMA by 2X
* General Hospitalizations increasing but growth rate has crested
* ICU & Vents behind Winter 2020 Wave pace

1/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/27,
* Pos rate 23.91% on its way to ~31%
* Testing @ 130K/day on way to 155K
* Record positive tests
* Looking at more recent days, pos rate flattens @ 31%, will watch for a crest

. ImageImageImageImage
1/6 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Nearing 40K 7DMA, after 6th straight day of massive numbers
* More than twice the previous record set during Winter 2020
* After tomorrow, growth rate will plateau, but cases have gone wild

. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
8/4 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:


Virtually the same highlights as yesterday (see Q/T below). This next week we are going to see the highest case & hospitalization growth rates of the curve, before it starts to crest mid-month. Hold on tight.

8/4 Positivity Rate:

* Antigen pos% still in post-peak, even if flat yesterday. Will be surprised if peak doesn't hold.
* PCR still in-peak. Yesterday's revisions nudged it up, but now 6 days with virtually no growth rate.

8/4 Cases:

Another huge day on raw case counts, mostly driven by big testing numbers, way more testing than during last year's wave. (Hence why Positivity is only 17+%. Last year hit 20%)

15K cases reported today, way ahead of 2020. #casedemic continues.

Read 8 tweets
8/3 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:



1) Antigen confirmed peak, PCR possibly in peak
2) Cases Gone Wild
3) Hosps continue behind 2020
4) Weekly update to Fatality Projection model - downward revision
5) 51 reported fatalities today

8/3 Positivity Rate:

* I'm 90% sure Antigen Pos% has peaked. New revisions today, but 3 days of declines since Friday peak.
* PCR revisions show new slight climb today, but the past 6 days have been within 1% of each other, with a peak clearly forming. We watch.

8/3 Case:

Another day over 10K cases. Cases are going nuts, way ahead of 2020 pace. But its #Casedemic as you will see in the next few slides.

Cases at nearly 8500/day in the 7DMA, not far from Summer 2020 peak of 10250. Vaccines where art thou?

Hang in there.

Read 11 tweets
8/2 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:


Highlights before we get into the details:

1) A peak for positivity rate???
2) Huge Sunday case dump from Harris Co.
3) Hospitalizations falling further behind vs. 2020
4) 4 total fatalities reported today

8/2 Positivity Rate:

* Need 2 more days before I'm ready to call anything
* I'm 80% sure Antigen has peaked, 4 straight days of declines
* I'm 50/50 on PCR. Could be the weekend effect. These get revised as test results arrive to the state, which can take a few days.

8/2 Cases:

Harris dumped over 1600 cases of the 3700 reported today. The 7DMA in 2021 is super jagged due to all the periodic reporting and backlogged case dumping.

2021 is still well ahead of 2020 Summer wave in regards to raw case total.


Read 8 tweets
8/1 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:


#Casedemic continues. Good day for pos% & cases. Hospitalizations continue to track below 2020, and fatalities running increasingly behind 2020.

Positivity Rate:

Could be the weekend, but both positivity rates show a peak and the start of a decline. Moreso Antigen, but PCR as well. We will watch the next couple of days to see if this solidifies or if its just weekend reporting. Possible good news though.

8/1 Cases:

Better day. Basically the same week over week as last Sunday. So the 7DMA is flat. Still way ahead of 2020 Summer wave pace, however.

If we go by 2020, the case wave will peak in about 17 days. We watch.

Read 8 tweets
7/31 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:


Casedemic is here. Cases are way ahead of the 2020 Summer Wave pace, while general hospitalizations, ICU, and fatalities are running increasingly behind 2020.

Positivity Rate

Antigen Positivity Rate had a bunch of revisions, but still is trying to crest. PCR Positivity doesn't look to be far behind. Is 20% the magic number, as it has been in 2020 Summer and Winter waves, or will it crest below that?

Cases -

Running way ahead of 2020 pace now. Remember these 2 waves are 13 months apart to the day.

Second day in a row and 3rd out of 4 above 10,000 cases.

#Casedemic and here's why...

Read 8 tweets

You are not going to believe this one (or maybe you will), but bear with me. I had to triple check my figures on this just to reassure myself it was true.

And what’s more, this is likely to be happening every single day.
More👇🏻 Image
Last night the esteemed @BBCHughPym, BBC health editor since March 2014, ran a seemingly alarming story about the Covid-19 situation in the North East, as you can see below.

With interviews from a respiratory consultant, medical director, elected city mayor, and local resident. Image
It featured as a segment on the 6 o’clock news, 10 o’clock news, @BBCNEandCumbria, as well as being one of the top stories online (see screenshot).

I have no way of calculating the audience reach but we can safely assume it was into the millions, nationwide and regionally. Image
Read 22 tweets
De derde ronde prikken is in Duitsland aangekondigd.
Want prikje 1+2 zijn nauwelijks effectief tegen het Delta variantje zegt Merkel.…
De Deltavariant, die voorheen Indiase variant heette, waart, in Nederland, al twee maanden rond zonder noemenswaardige gevolgen. Sterker; Ziekenhuizen liepen leeg en doden namen af in deze tijd. (Half mei tm half juli)…
Paniek in Duitsland is niet terecht.
Read 14 tweets
De Jonge over stijging besmettingen: ’Iets om je zorgen over te maken’


Kort 🧵 via @telegraaf
🇩🇪 --> De Jonge is lekker een tripje aan het maken met de Koning👑.

Meer testen = meer vinden. Dat weet iedereen (🥕)
#Casedemic. Image
- Hoop is geen strategie.

- Long-covid vergeten. Dus je pas 'écht' zorgen maken bij meer opnames is waarschijnlijk een hele grote fout.

- Als het aantal opnames stijgt, ben je (weer) te laat. Image
Read 4 tweets
Over 11,000 new cases in the UK today, nearly all can be attributed to delta B.1.617.2, highest since 19 Feb
43% increase in hospitalizations past week
This is also the 🇬🇧-->🇺🇸 warning (again)
We're at ~14% delta, UK at >90%
We are less vaccinated, 1st dose (graph) and fully
It's not a #casedemic
The sad part is we could *block* Delta's effect if we had a substantial jump in vaccinations
The only way that can be accomplished in the weeks ahead is thru @US_FDA full licensure of mRNA BLAs.
No ✓ FDA status, no demand to @DrWoodcockFDA for statement on this important matter
Read 3 tweets
March 2020 Tedros of @WHO tweets that Case fatility rate comparable to IFR ie. 3.4% of the world pop. ie 265,000,000 people will die.This despite other world renowned scientists challenging this on the basis of Diamond Princess etc…
These outrageous claims are backed up by Ferguson and his long time record of outrageous claims that have caused untold misery and devastating losses to people over time.
Read 21 tweets
Every day a new record. A record of lack of will to take action, promote infections, hospitalizations, #LongCovid, and deaths in larger numbers of Americans.
150, 526 new infections today
67, 096 hospitalizations
1,104 deaths
A country positivity rate of 10.1%
Look at the ascension in hospitalizations, adding >10,000 in a week, surpassing the first 2 surges, and no limit is sight.
The cases are going vertical
Read 4 tweets
Not to detract from the celebration BUT
We just had >128,000 new US infections, another new record.
The hospitalizations continue to rise to almost 59,000 ()(~1,000 more since yesterday)
1,097 more people died.
We have serious work cut out for us
We're about to go to a new pandemic peak in people hospitalized, >60,000
The rise in cases is limitless unless we take aggressive action, which of course should have been initiated months ago. But it's never too late.
Read 4 tweets
1/ Maybe we are detecting too many asymptomatic cases, people with non infectious viral remnants, and acknowledge a low case fatality rate. People suggest a #casedemic, yet we hear of a lot of European countries now struggling with hospitalised Covid patients
2/ I read one article which seems very convincing about the low risk of Covid 19. Other papers suggesting a far higher level of T-cell immunity. Data to suggest this coronavirus is no worse than seasonal flu. And that data seems very convincing
3/ And then I see news from Europe whose healthcare systems are overrun (France data today), worrying data of concerning numbers of sick Covid patients.
Read 5 tweets
COVID deaths & hospitalizations always lag cases. The lag has been demonstrated, is often 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 than a month, and its timing can be predicted accurately (I have done it.) The #casedemic folks are just, well, wrong.

A thread explaining the lag with real-world examples.

1/n Image
I will show what causes the lag, and how I can predict it accurately. First, there are multiple causes behind it:

#1 clinical
#2 reporting
#3 age prevalence

I will explain these causes one by one

Lag #1 is the most obvious: clinically the mean infection-to-death time is 22.9 days (see pg 4:…)

So at minimum deaths will lag cases by a little over 3 weeks

Similarly, infection-to-hospitalization is 1-2 weeks

3/n Image
Read 31 tweets
This is a followup to my thread yesterday to help the public understand better what is going on in Toronto (and Ottawa, Peel, and the rest of Ontario). I am going to focus on what everyone needs to understand about the ON testing fiasco (which is being played out elsewhere too)
First: I get my data from @jkwan_md @imgrund @JPSoucy @ishaberry2 to support my understanding. They get it primarily from publicly available sources, and make the data easy to understand.

Second: our daily case # in ON are artificially low (by ~330) because of the backlog.
The backlog was entirely preventable. I was told months ago when I asked that the reason labs weren't able to increase capacity was $$ from govt. @bruce_arthur covers this accurately here
Read 11 tweets
When is the Covid #Casedemic going to end? Why have we decided that a positive case is worth canceling events, quarantines and school closures? The data and the science just do not support this.

Here are some facts.

Covid survival rates for infected people by age group:

0-19 years 99.997%
20-49 years 99.98%
50-69 years 99.5%
70+ years 94.6%

Children to not die of Covid and neither do young adults. Also they are usually asymptomatic and children are not significant transmitters.

According to the CDC 94% of deaths have an average of 2.6 comorbidities. This does not mean that only 6% died of Covid. It does mean only 6% ONLY had Covid. In those 94% who died WITH Covid it may or may not have been a major cause. It is hard to make a definitive statement.

Read 20 tweets
It's forgivable to have an initial overreaction to #COVID19 where data is scarce and inconsistent. It's unforgivable, however, to double down on these policies that are proven to be an overwhelming failure to attempt to cover up what you have done.
1.4 million more global TB deaths according to the NYT, 6000 more children will die per day according to UNICEF thanks to the lockdown’s disruptions. People are dying and will die in a proportion far larger than COVID because of politicians’ fragile egos. It’s not all about jobs.
To quote @sdbaral, human beings are more than just vectors for disease. And they are more than vectors for this ONE disease. Decades of progress are being lost in crucial global health issues for a virus that is burning out throughout the world. But the #casedemic continues.
Read 3 tweets
SHOCK REPORT: This Week CDC Quietly Updated COVID-19 Numbers – Only 9,210 Americans Died From COVID-19 Alone – Rest Had Different Other Serious Illnesses…
Glaxo conned the world in 2009, and is all set to do it again.
Crucial Viewing - to truly understand our current Viral Issue #Casedemic
Read 5 tweets
We know all about the COVID, we are awake to what the real truth is.
Crucial Viewing - to truly understand our current Viral Issue #Casedemic
SHOCK REPORT: This Week CDC Quietly Updated COVID-19 Numbers – Only 9,210 Americans Died From COVID-19 Alone – Rest Had Different Other Serious Illnesses…
Read 4 tweets
Great news happening in Florida! Per the Governor's press conference:

* All Florida School Districts will be open to in-person learning as of today.
* 1.1 Million kids in-person
* 60% of all parents selected in-person for their kids
DeSantis really strong railing against #casedemic. Asking how many of these "cases" reported by the media RE: schools, actually end up hospitalized?
Atlas quoting JAMA on the risk of seasonal influenza being more risk to young people than Covid-19. High-risk people need to mitigate, but low-risk people need to be allowed to function.

Saying that asymptomatic testing is not the way forward on this.

Great stuff!!!
Read 5 tweets
I repeat: The big lie being perpetuated is that students testing positive from PCR is that this somehow is due to their behavior on campus. You could’ve been exposed to COVID 8 weeks ago, haven’t been infectious for 6, but now that they’re testing every student it’s an “outbreak”
Case numbers are useless. PCR tests no longer reflect the actual burden of COVID-19 on the United States. People need to wake up and realize this has turned into a #casedemic.
Schools across the country have been open for weeks. No huge spikes in their communities. Europe, when many countries are seeing a “second wave” of cases, are opening schools. Sweden kept theirs open, no one under 20 died. They found teachers at same risk as grocery store workers
Read 3 tweets
Inspired by others taking this approach, I've made charts for Ontario, Canada.

There is little apparent relationship now between new reported Covid-19 cases and deaths or ICU admissions.

#COVID19Ontario #COVID19 #casedemic ImageImage
Read 3 tweets

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