Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/6 - USA. Aug 06 to Aug 12 -
The country experiences a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.22).
Red (R >0.90 and cases>30/100K pop/week) in ALL states;
9 states detailed in:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/6 - Massachusetts (R-eff=1.26) 73.1% received 1 dose; New York (1.25), 63.7%, experience surges in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, at medium levels, with very low mortality, for 7 more days.

Vermont experiences rapid and worrying surge (1.37), 75.8%, with very low mortality.

3/6 - Texas (R-eff=1.28), 52.5% received 1 dose; [and Louisiana (1.27), 43.4% received 1 dose] are experiencing surges in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, at [very] high levels, with [very] high mortality levels, for 7 more days.

4/6 - Missouri (R-eff=1.09), 49.5% received 1 dose, is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high level, with very high level of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/6 - Nebraska (R-eff=1.16), 54.7% received 1 dose, is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at medium level, with very low level of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/6 - California (R-eff=1.26), 65.5% received 1 dose, [and Washington (1.28), 64.5% received 1 dose] are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with medium [low] levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/6 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 30/100K pop./week.
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700

8/6 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0