Thread by @andrewflood

Todays 1522 #Covid19Ireland cases are 113% of last Mondays & added here as a green dot on the NPHET Precarious Exist scenarios. Taking cases from 10 days after indoors opened those 4 days are 130% of same days last week /1

217 hospital is 123% last Mon
176 new hospital cases this week are 99% last weeks
176 NHC are 1.9% of 9162 cases to Aug 3
34 ICU is 126% last Mon
20 ICU admissions this week is 133% of ICU admissions last week
20 ICU admissions is 13% of 135 new hospital cases to August 6th
/2

Plugging in case increase at 130% previous week and current hospitalisation & ICU rate accumulates by end Sept
300k cases
5663 hospital
709 ICU
which lies between NPHET Central 1 & 2 scenario but closer to 2
/3

I’ve used end of Sept as the cutoff above as that was the June 25th scenario cutoffs presented by NPHET. But vaccination has been more extensive than hoped for & at Thursday HSE presser it was suggested the updated models reach a peak at the end of August /4

Running the cumulative calculation at the same rates to the 1st week of September looks *very* different;
142k cases
2626 hospital
314 ICU
We really need to see those updated models and be given an idea of the assumptions around them as clearly they are guiding policy /5

4 million people are fully vaccinated on the island, for the south with the improvement on yesterday its
1st: 3,425,121 (+8,745) 68.8% (16+ 87.6%)
Full: 2,913,090 (+11,917) 58.5% (16+74.5%)
which leaves 1.55 million unvaccinated, about 500k of whom are over 16. /6

Tonight NPHET said 17% of cases are now in fully vaccinated people, very crudely as 56% are fully vaccinated thats less than 1/3 of what would be expected if vaccines didn’t protect against infection - so vaccines are massively reducing infection /7

But there is a lot of uncertainty, and not just in Ireland. Indeed a problem with being among the 1st to reach this level of vaccination is there is no certainty yet about how it will reduce infection to a manageable level & Delta makes consequences of being premature huge /8

Current north / south cases per 100k comparison