Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Covid19Ireland

#Covid19Ireland ICU admissions are now very clearly post peak with
44 new ICU this week is 79% previous
New ICU is 0.03% cases, 5.15% new hospital cases
78 in ICU this morning is 88% last Saturday
I'm going to be posting less often with a focus on trends 'just in case'
/1

The post peak trend is also clear in hospital figures, everything points to an infection peak in the 1srt week of January
804 new hospital cases this week is 82% previous
New hospital cases are 0.6% cases
836 hospital is 89% last Saturday
/2

As with yesterday my biggest note of caution is the way cases (and deaths) are now rising again in the north of Ireland
3476 cases is 121% last Saturday
25268 cases this week is 118% previous
5 DoH deaths
32 DoH deaths this week is 110% previous
/3

896 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases is 89% last Thursday - this view of hospital cases during the entire pandemic shows we peaked at about all last year but also that this & last Autumn we had peaks that were unfortunately brief interludes /1

The 853 new hospital cases this week is 84% previous, this measure normally leads hospital occupancy so its a useful warning of a change in direction /2

New Hospital cases are 0.58% cases, that rate of decent has slowed & for now hard to know how much of that is testing being overwhelmed and how much the large increase in incidence in older populations in the new year /3

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Common Sunday increase in #Covid19Ireland hospital cases due to delayed discharges at weekend with 984 in Hospital 137% last Sunday - that rate has slowed & this day last year there were 1,285 in hospital. Discharges typically catch up Tuesdays so tomorrow may see over 1,000 /1

Today last year there were a similar number of new hospital cases (134) but we were in the middle of a rapid escalation of occupancy due to xmas intergenerational mixing - so far this year is different because of higher discharge rate, probably vaccine driven /2

Again due to vaccination the proportion of cases going to hospital is a tiny fraction of last year. New hospital cases are 0.83% cases in week to 6 days previous - just as well as there were 123k cases detected that week & probably as many again that could not access testing /3

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Actual #Covid19Ireland ICU occupancy added as a black dot onto NPHETs mid December scenarios for Omicron - if anything we have more cases than expected so ICU being this far below expected is remarkable & very good news indeed - see thread

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1479756744456904705

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1479765902719598596

This tweet is doing number so added context
1. Cases appear to me to be at the worst end is scenarios but we lack capacity to detect that many
2. Hospitalisations until 3 days ago we’re heading for upper 1/3 of worst outcomes
… /2

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1479765902719598596

…My guess would be vaccination is proving to be much more effective against severe outcomes with Omicron than anticipated but I’m still nervous about a surge in older grps. A very good thing as those ICU demand scenarios were for far more ICUs than we have at the worst 1/2

Todays 917 #COVID19Ireland hospital cases are 140% last Saturday but 2nd day of a row of falling numbers. I don't want to prematurely call that a peak, it will rise tomorrow, but it is very good news indeed which I'll explain in detail /1

Looking at last years hospital graph makes it clear we are on a very different trajectory. Today had 1153 in hospital and was the first 1/3 of several days of rapidly rising hospital cases as a consequence of xmas intergenerational mixing - we are not seeing that /2

We have seen a period of rapidly rising new hospital cases but they are no longer doubling despite cases more than doubling in the week 6 days back, 1007 new hospital cases this week is 136% previous rather than 200%+ /3

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936 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases today Jan7 is 137% last Friday but for the 1st time fewer than this day last year which had 1022. There were more admissions 161 this year V 131 last year but shorter lengths of stay mean numbers in hospital are now less with 3 day plateau/1

972 new hospital cases this week is 141% previous but after a long period of every day increase this to has plateaued over last 3 days - too early to call a trend but certainly welcome in comparison with the alternative which had us heading for 1700 is hospital by Thursday /2

Underlying this is a fall in the proportion of cases going to hospital, New hospital cases in week are 0.91% cases, 1st time that's fallen under 1% and for periods in recent months it was four times that rate (we'd have 4,000 in hospital now at that mid October rate) /3

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Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

@VirginMediaNews

🦠 #COVID19ireland
7333 cases reported today

🏥 Hospital: 410 (481 last week)
ICU: 107 (111)

📈 5d avg: 4645 (4377)
📈 7d avg: 4654 (4284)

📆 14d incidence: 1314/100k (1319)

💉 Vaccination:
½: 3879503 (92.8% of 12+)
✅: 3820450 (91.4%)
➕: 1462167 (35%)
@VirginMediaNews

That’s Ireland’s third-highest daily case number of the pandemic. The raw numbers of swabs being taken are not published over the weekend so we can’t, until Monday, tell if it is (yet) reflected by an underlying trend in actual swabbing.

Tony Holohan: “We can expect to see a large number of cases over the next short period of time.”

Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

@VirginMediaNews

Here, again.

Micheál Martin to deliver a live televised address on the latest #Covid19ireland restrictions, on @VirginMediaNews in a few minutes.

@VirginMediaNews

@VirginMediaNews Taoiseach: The Omicron variant is "exploding throughout Europe"… we are in the early days, but it's clear "we are dealing with a hugely transmissible strain", several times more transmissible than Delta

@VirginMediaNews

@VirginMediaNews Taoiseach: More than a third of all new cases in Ireland are attributed to Omicron; question is how we slow that rise. Left unchecked, it would present a "very significant" threat to hospitals and critical care, but also to economy and society

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Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

24 more officially sequenced cases of Omicron in Ireland, bringing the national total to 42 - though NPHET says it estimates Omicron now accounts for 13% of all cases, based on its trademark ‘S-gene dropout’.

NPHET reporting 47 Covid-19 deaths since last Wednesday, bringing the total to 5,835.

@VirginMediaNews

🦠 #COVID19ireland
4235 cases reported today

🏥 Hospital: 470 (544 last week)
ICU: 105 (118)

📉 5d avg: 4296 (4694)
📉 7d avg: 4231 (4722)

📆 14d incidence: 1316/100k (1362)

💉 Vaccination:
½: 3874974 (92.7% of 12+)
✅: 3813808 (91.3%)
➕: 1240272 (29.7%)
@VirginMediaNews

Kieran Kelly

@KieranKelly77

@DonnellyStephen

When @DonnellyStephen, @CMOIreland, @HSELive, @laoneill111 state that I should be vaccinated, they should have the ability to convince me its safe and that I can trust them. They've certainly not done that; let me explain 👇

When they tell me to not wear a mask, and then suddenly change to wear a mask, they aroused my suspicion

https://twitter.com/FlattenTheLies/status/1360247260697800705?t=tn1wtTP4x1qBSeaIEVB29w&s=19

When the #HSE told kids (with cfr of 500000/1+) that it's safe based on a) avoiding mild illness b) going back to school c) rejoin society without risk analysis figures, but declare a 16000/1 chance of a severe adverse reaction, they arouse my suspicion

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Looking in details at 63 #Covid19Ireland deaths added week shows a larger proportion of younger ages, larger proportion at home and all but one in recent months from comparison with last weeks
Under 25 +2
25-34 +1
35-44 +1
45-54 NC
55-64 +4
65-74 +16
75-84 +15
85plus +24
/1

1 January 2021, 25 added to months covered by July NPHET scenarios - some commentators prematurely thought we had come further under deaths scn than was likely because they were not allowing for report lag
Jan+1
July+1
Aug+4
Sep+19
Oct+37 (Of which 21 were prior to this week)/2

The 10 occurring at home is 4 times the rate of the pandemic overall which along with the younger ages might indicate C19 triggered heart attacks?

Settings
Hospital +25
Res Institution +20
Home +10
Unknown +8

Outbreak linked
Nursing home +22
Hospital +4
Community Hos +1
/3

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Big surge in #Covid19Ireland ICU admissions today which TBH already throughs the push ahead with reopening into doubt. Highest occupancy since 19th March
86 ICU is 125% last Weds
49 ICU admissions this week is 153% previous
ICU admissions are 13% NHC, 0.5% cases /1

There was a lot of (strange) commentary that treated the August NPHET scenarios as missed targets & so is now wondering why healthcare can't cope now. Better to understand them as avoided fears that would have caused enormous disruption - which we are now heading towards /2

There appear to have been two deaths as only 12 additional occupancy but that would have filled all the available ICU beds yesterday which presumably means surge capacity will be activated by taking operating theatres out of use - so a lot of cancelled other healthcare /3

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Alarming #Covid19Ireland 2399 cases tonight, 167% last Tues but partially because the swab backlog caught up today rather than tomorrow. Swabs are still 131% same days last week though so still unsustainable /1

2399 cases is 167% last Tues 13144 cases this week is 127% previous - both those are the highest figures since January so just as well vaccination is greatly reducing hospitalisations & deaths as otherwise things would be very grim rather than somewhat grim /2

So far New Hospital cases rising more slowly but there is also very very little capacity
472 hospital is 117% last Tues
472 New Hospital Cases this week is 117% previous
NHC are 3.6% of cases
/3

Le Sigh - an early update of the NPHETs Exit #Covid19Ireland cases plot confirms what looks like the start of the 5th wave with
1358 cases 152% last Monday
9999 cases this week at 113% previous
With the end of contact tracing in schools we should have seen a missed case drop /1

The potential emerging 5th wave is also clear on the New Hospital Cases Plot - the doubling of case severity in the last 2-3 weeks is an unexplained concern
400 hospital is 120% last Monday
308 new hospital cases this week is 116% last week
NHC were 3.65% cases in previous week/2

Likewise ICU shows a rise when NPHETs Exit expected a fall - we did well for 2 months, now its at least doubtful
75 ICU is 117% last Monday
36 ICU admissions is 109% previous week
ICU admissions are 12.5% NHC
/3

Read 5 tweets

Last 3 days of #Covid19Ireland confirms bad news of what may be the start of wave 5. Swabs over those 3 days are 132% of the same days last week & positivity now up to 10% confirming this isn't an impact of more testing
Sat 1722, 144%
Sun 1523, 118%
Mon 1449, 136%
/1

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447487009971449857?s=20

We are also seeing that potential 5th wave in New Hospital Cases
400 hospital is 120% last Monday
308 new hospital cases this week is 116% last week
NHC were 3.65% cases in previous week /2

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447487009971449857?s=20

And if not yet as strong in ICU
75 ICU is 117% last Monday
36 ICU admissions is 109% previous week
ICU admissions are 12.5% NHC
/3

Read 9 tweets

Yikes, hospital cases are starting to look like the start of a #Covid19Ireland 5th wave - now really is the 2nd best time to get vaccinated if you've been putting it off.
8th of March was the last time we had 400 hospital cases so yes this is a Monday high but still a high

Vaccination is doing a great job of reducing our mortality - Eastern European counties with low vaccination rates are starting to get hammered as cases surge again but UK mortality being twice our rate is a warning that cases still come with a mortality cost /2

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1446192480425234435?s=20

I abandoned posting detailed daily updates a few weeks back & switched to one big weekly one but I'm still checking the key data every day & taking notes in case the exit goes seriously wrong quickly - I'm not too happy with trends of the last few days /3

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1446192480425234435?s=20

Read 10 tweets

8 days since my last #Covid19Ireland update & I'm going to flag a number of metrics making me nervous. First off over the last 5 days a very large swab backlog appears to have accumulated so in terms of cases we are probably seeing an increase rather than a decrease /1

With actually notified cases we appear to still be under reduced transmission curve, add in those 900 and we wouldn't. Without those the 7903 cases this week are 86% previous, with more like 98% so not seeing expected decline /2

Covid hospital cases have been slowly increasing for several days now when they were expected to decline
354 Hospital is 119% last Thursday
285 New Hospital Cases this week is 115%
NHC are 3.1% of cases 6 days back /3

Read 18 tweets

5th day with sizeable case increase, the 1508 cases today is 149% last Tuesday and has us on a path close to NPHET Central 2 scenario by end September (details follow).
11,282 cases this week are 123% last weeks
206 hospital is 116% last Tues
33 ICU is 114% last Tues
/1

Currently 2.2% cases hospital 12% of which go to ICU. Using those rates & taking as growth last 5 days cases,133% last week (10 days after opening indoors hospitality)
June 25 to end Sept;
346660cases
7417 hospital
867 ICU
Slightly under NPHET C2 with its 1150 deaths /2

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1425086498613960715?s=20

Reporting of deaths in the south is much delayed, but we can see whats happening north of the border to get some inclination. DoH reported 41 deaths since July 30th which would typically by 55 NISRA deaths (slower more accurate count) /3

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1425086498613960715?s=20

Read 13 tweets