Thread by @andrewflood

5th day with sizeable case increase, the 1508 cases today is 149% last Tuesday and has us on a path close to NPHET Central 2 scenario by end September (details follow).
11,282 cases this week are 123% last weeks
206 hospital is 116% last Tues
33 ICU is 114% last Tues
/1

Currently 2.2% cases hospital 12% of which go to ICU. Using those rates & taking as growth last 5 days cases,133% last week (10 days after opening indoors hospitality)
June 25 to end Sept;
346660cases
7417 hospital
867 ICU
Slightly under NPHET C2 with its 1150 deaths /2

Reporting of deaths in the south is much delayed, but we can see whats happening north of the border to get some inclination. DoH reported 41 deaths since July 30th which would typically by 55 NISRA deaths (slower more accurate count) /3

Faster than expect vaccination may mean an earlier & much lower peak but await NPHET model update to be made public.
69% population now has dose 1
1st: 3,436,543 (+11,422) 69% (16+87.9%)
Full: 2,942,184 (+29,094) 59.1% (16+75.3%) /4

HPSC County table for 14 days to midnight Aug 8th showing disimprovement in all but 5 counties (blue) when you compare this week with the previous. The worst 6 include 4 of the border counties. Wexford is disimproving the fastest followed by Offaly and Carlow /5

HPSC 14 day table to midnight 8th August
19696 cases, 51.0% male, 48% female
Median age 24
Mean age 28
15.4% over 45
61.5% 13-35
73 cases were over 85
668 cases were over 65 (3.4%)
Vaccination protection of older ages holding up much better than in the north so far /6

Infection source table is showing much much fewer infections are being traced, only 53% were sol far in the period covered. 63 cases were hospital acquired patient which is 18% of the 353 new hospital cases in that period. 807 travel related cases were 8.7% of traced cases. /7

All island NI/RoI #Covid19Ireland core stats, north is very much harder hit - plot is yesterday 7 day cases per 100k
Cases 1305+1508=2813
Hospital 311+206=517
ICU 41+33=74
1st 4,677,354 (+12,719) 68.2%
Full 4,037,171 (+33,442) 58.8%
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Core message remains get vaccinated & encourage friends & family to do likewise. It's cutting infections but hospitalisations & death even more so. Were it not for vaccination we'd already be in crisis at these case numbers rather that waiting to see /9

Important additional point is the case load is now at point that broke testing & tracing at end of 2020. HSE has been preparing for these numbers, eg packs of anti-gen tests for close contacts but contact tracing is already become less effective so increasing growth rate /10

It's hard to know how exactly this will play out between Delta on the one hand & high vaccination rates on the other. We talk about this in detail on the lates Plate Tapes radioactiveinternational.org/gotw-plague-ta…

Woops wrong graphic with that one, here’s the age table

Well this is great, the swab data just came back online so we now have a clue what to expect tomorrow