8/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/10:
1) PCR Pos% in tentative 8/6 peak
2) Rates of growth decline
3) Hospitalizations running hot
4) New Fatality projections
5) Breakdown on 84 reported fatalities
1/n
.
8/10 Positivity Rates:
* PCR forming a August 6 peak. Unlike last Tuesday when new high was set, today only 3rd highest of the past 4 days. Not ready to call it quite yet, but it lines up with the Rt peaks. About time.
* Antigen peak still 8/1. Declining strongly now.
2/n
.
8/10 Rate of Growth Analysis:
* Put all three in one chart. Easy to see trend
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.2%
* Case rate of growth down to 25.2%
* Hosps rate of growth down to 41%
PCR & Case rates of growth declining rapidly. Hopefully hosps do same shortly
3/n
.
8/10 Cases:
* Per 3/n rate of growth continues to decrease.
* Rate of growth declines 6 of past 8 days
* 13K+ cases reported today
* 7DMA reaches 10.5K cases per day
* ~8/15 Peak still a possibility?
4/n
.
8/10 Hospitalizations
* Still running hot, big jump today to over 10K beds & almost 16% of total beds in state
* Still running behind 2020
* Am looking at leading hosp indicators at CDC & in Houston, possible cooling off is coming?
* Next couple of days data is crucial
5/n
.
8/10 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 Summer numbers thru 7/19, 2020 Summer thru 6/20. 13 months apart.
* Many revisions downward (explained in 7/n).
* 2021 Summer has 15.2% fewer projected fatalities than 2020, and 26.5% fewer actual fatalities.
6/n
.
8/10 Fatalities Part 2:
* 84 reported today, up from 51 last Tuesday
* Rinse & Repeat on the pattern of arrivals being almost all less than 2 weeks old
* July 2021 fatalities not coming in as expected vs hosp line, or as previous waves would predict.
7/n
.
8/10 Fatalities Part 3 - projections:
* The original primer - go to yesterday's update
* See tweet below from last Tuesday
* Bunch of revisions downward for Days in Arrears (DiA) 14-42.
* Have yet to under-project a single day through DiA 49
8/n
.
8/10 Conclusion:
* PCR Pos% Rate appears to have peaked on 8/6
* Antigen stays at 8/1
* Case growth is decelerating quickly
* Hospitalizations, look for deceleration in next 2-3 days
* Fatalities T-3 weeks, still not coming in as expected with this qty of hospitalizations
9/end
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