Thread by @therealarod1984

8/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/10:

1) PCR Pos% in tentative 8/6 peak
2) Rates of growth decline
3) Hospitalizations running hot
4) New Fatality projections
5) Breakdown on 84 reported fatalities

1/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1424795427417776131?s=20

8/10 Positivity Rates:

* PCR forming a August 6 peak. Unlike last Tuesday when new high was set, today only 3rd highest of the past 4 days. Not ready to call it quite yet, but it lines up with the Rt peaks. About time.
* Antigen peak still 8/1. Declining strongly now.

2/n
.

8/10 Rate of Growth Analysis:

* Put all three in one chart. Easy to see trend
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.2%
* Case rate of growth down to 25.2%
* Hosps rate of growth down to 41%

PCR & Case rates of growth declining rapidly. Hopefully hosps do same shortly

3/n
.

8/10 Cases:

* Per 3/n rate of growth continues to decrease.
* Rate of growth declines 6 of past 8 days
* 13K+ cases reported today
* 7DMA reaches 10.5K cases per day
* ~8/15 Peak still a possibility?

4/n
.

8/10 Hospitalizations

* Still running hot, big jump today to over 10K beds & almost 16% of total beds in state
* Still running behind 2020
* Am looking at leading hosp indicators at CDC & in Houston, possible cooling off is coming?
* Next couple of days data is crucial

5/n
.

8/10 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 Summer numbers thru 7/19, 2020 Summer thru 6/20. 13 months apart.
* Many revisions downward (explained in 7/n).
* 2021 Summer has 15.2% fewer projected fatalities than 2020, and 26.5% fewer actual fatalities.

6/n
.

8/10 Fatalities Part 2:

* 84 reported today, up from 51 last Tuesday
* Rinse & Repeat on the pattern of arrivals being almost all less than 2 weeks old
* July 2021 fatalities not coming in as expected vs hosp line, or as previous waves would predict.

7/n
.

8/10 Fatalities Part 3 - projections:

* The original primer - go to yesterday's update
* See tweet below from last Tuesday
* Bunch of revisions downward for Days in Arrears (DiA) 14-42.
* Have yet to under-project a single day through DiA 49

8/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1422656204447395844?s=20

8/10 Conclusion:

* PCR Pos% Rate appears to have peaked on 8/6
* Antigen stays at 8/1
* Case growth is decelerating quickly
* Hospitalizations, look for deceleration in next 2-3 days
* Fatalities T-3 weeks, still not coming in as expected with this qty of hospitalizations

9/end