Thread by @tedtalksmacro

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Options market analysis on #BTC headed into the August month-end expiry!

Gamma Exposure...

#BTC sees positive gamma concentrated between $44k and $50k, with $50k being the high gamma strike.

This tells me that $44k should be the floor and price gravitates toward $50k!

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I often look for any spike higher in 'volatility skew' to gauge whether or not the market is in demand for downside protection - put buying as a hedge for #BTC long exposure

7-day skew has spiked and perhaps suggests some short-term demand for downside protection

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'Implied volatility term structure' suggests that there is no real panic and demand for volatility related products - which is in my opinion, very positive for #BTC bulls

Considering that Bitcoin is at key HTF resistance, the lack of demand for volatility is quite impressive

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While on the subject of volatility, implied volatility has trended lower since the crash of mid-May, leaving the market in a 'range-bound' environment for the most part ever since

Only recently has this metric started to move higher and suggests that larger moves are to come

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Just touching back on the subject of 'gamma exposure'...

As you can see above $44k, #BTC is in a comparatively high, positive GEX environment.

This environment often sees choppy, liquidity hunting price-action where breakout plays are quickly faded back into the range

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Summing this brief analysis up...

Over the short-term, the market appears worried about a little bit of downside in #BTC - indicated by a spike in vol. skew...

However, price should be supported at $44k and high GEX at $50k suggests that a move toward that level is likely