1/
Options market analysis on #BTC headed into the August month-end expiry!
Gamma Exposure...
#BTC sees positive gamma concentrated between $44k and $50k, with $50k being the high gamma strike.
This tells me that $44k should be the floor and price gravitates toward $50k!
Options market analysis on #BTC headed into the August month-end expiry!
Gamma Exposure...
#BTC sees positive gamma concentrated between $44k and $50k, with $50k being the high gamma strike.
This tells me that $44k should be the floor and price gravitates toward $50k!
2/
I often look for any spike higher in 'volatility skew' to gauge whether or not the market is in demand for downside protection - put buying as a hedge for #BTC long exposure
7-day skew has spiked and perhaps suggests some short-term demand for downside protection
I often look for any spike higher in 'volatility skew' to gauge whether or not the market is in demand for downside protection - put buying as a hedge for #BTC long exposure
7-day skew has spiked and perhaps suggests some short-term demand for downside protection
3/
'Implied volatility term structure' suggests that there is no real panic and demand for volatility related products - which is in my opinion, very positive for #BTC bulls
Considering that Bitcoin is at key HTF resistance, the lack of demand for volatility is quite impressive
'Implied volatility term structure' suggests that there is no real panic and demand for volatility related products - which is in my opinion, very positive for #BTC bulls
Considering that Bitcoin is at key HTF resistance, the lack of demand for volatility is quite impressive
4/
While on the subject of volatility, implied volatility has trended lower since the crash of mid-May, leaving the market in a 'range-bound' environment for the most part ever since
Only recently has this metric started to move higher and suggests that larger moves are to come
While on the subject of volatility, implied volatility has trended lower since the crash of mid-May, leaving the market in a 'range-bound' environment for the most part ever since
Only recently has this metric started to move higher and suggests that larger moves are to come
5/
Just touching back on the subject of 'gamma exposure'...
As you can see above $44k, #BTC is in a comparatively high, positive GEX environment.
This environment often sees choppy, liquidity hunting price-action where breakout plays are quickly faded back into the range
Just touching back on the subject of 'gamma exposure'...
As you can see above $44k, #BTC is in a comparatively high, positive GEX environment.
This environment often sees choppy, liquidity hunting price-action where breakout plays are quickly faded back into the range
6/
Summing this brief analysis up...
Over the short-term, the market appears worried about a little bit of downside in #BTC - indicated by a spike in vol. skew...
However, price should be supported at $44k and high GEX at $50k suggests that a move toward that level is likely
Summing this brief analysis up...
Over the short-term, the market appears worried about a little bit of downside in #BTC - indicated by a spike in vol. skew...
However, price should be supported at $44k and high GEX at $50k suggests that a move toward that level is likely
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