Thread by @MarsilioMusing

#MarsiliosTA

Hashtagging topic so easier to find during week if interested

2 charts attached:
ARKK daily
BTC 30m

A lot going on - I can glance & absorb a lot of info

But starting out might look messy

Going to unpack, indicator by indicator

#MarsiliosTA

The Yearly Pivot

I am giving away an amazing tool that not so many people know about, compared to say, daily 200 moving avg (D200MA) or 50MA, mentioned in CNBC all the time

Here's the same ARKK daily chart with only this on there

OK it was a great year for the YP

But also GBTC and ETHE

And now look at DJI last year

Massive break early covid crash
And a couple of oops fakeouts
But from August, smart $ was betting on recovery
Cleared in August then held 2x

The reason I like this type of TA is that there is no opinion

Above level or not - no debate

#MarsiliosTA

SPX even cleaner

3 holds late May - June 2020

Smart $ said bear market over, and that was the last touch of the SPX YP

Yes can be years between touches, depending on asset & market

NDX

Of course NDX led - recovered early April 2020

This is an extreme market, but it isn't the first time that NDX YP hold or recovery has saved or restarted the bull trend

Here's NDX late 2018 low, and early 2019 YP recovery

1 day fractional break in late 2018 after big drop, that was 12/24
Next day 5%+
That was a massive low!

#MarsiliosTA

Now that I have convinced you, what is the yearly pivot?

Pivot = (high + low + close of period) / 3

That's it! Just average of these 3. Period refers to whatever timeframe you are using.

yearly = last year so 2021 YP (yearly pivot) = (2020 H + L + C) / 3

I've also mentioned this in context of bear trend alert

Asset below YP probably not worth owning

2 examples, TLT & USO

That's the lesson for today, come back tomorrow to continue to build out these charts

(trying to hashtag each post but there will be thread & will unroll)