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#MarsiliosTA
Bollinger bands
Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA
It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results
If really interested read the book by the creator
Bollinger bands
Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA
It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results
If really interested read the book by the creator
Here's BTC with just the daily BBs
So how does this work?
Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered
Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for
To explain...
So how does this work?
Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered
Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for
To explain...
Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation
You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
Also should I continue TA threads?
See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to
pivots
simple MAs
tweaked MACD
combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance
if continuing, then:
See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to
pivots
simple MAs
tweaked MACD
combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance
if continuing, then:
Bollinger bands & how I use them - divergence & spotting reversals, 1st stage in change of trend
Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)
Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations
Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)
Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations
Then we have risk management, when to hold, when to cut, stops
Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else
Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else
#MarsiliosTA
People asking how to turn on pivots - just use tradingview's built in indicator where you can select yearly. half-year, quarter, etc what you want to check
You can turn it on more than once for different timeframes or use different tabs, then customize the lines
People asking how to turn on pivots - just use tradingview's built in indicator where you can select yearly. half-year, quarter, etc what you want to check
You can turn it on more than once for different timeframes or use different tabs, then customize the lines
MACD
not based on quant study
& did not do very rigorous experiment
played around until found settings that seemed to line up with pivot & MA signals a lot of the time
regular is 12 26 9
mine much faster - 7 15 5
more signals - if too many zoom out, or be rigorous on filter
not based on quant study
& did not do very rigorous experiment
played around until found settings that seemed to line up with pivot & MA signals a lot of the time
regular is 12 26 9
mine much faster - 7 15 5
more signals - if too many zoom out, or be rigorous on filter
So a lot of arrows in the MACD here, change of signal line
But on the way up above rising MAs & pivots longs profit, shorts easy to filter out - you don't short above a 50MA that is screaming higher or on top of monthly pivot
Just think about the 3 together & see when line up
But on the way up above rising MAs & pivots longs profit, shorts easy to filter out - you don't short above a 50MA that is screaming higher or on top of monthly pivot
Just think about the 3 together & see when line up
Next TA lesson - #MarsiliosTA
Sooo simple
haha
Simple Moving Averages
10
20
50
100
200
that's it!
But I do have a nifty twist...
Sooo simple
haha
Simple Moving Averages
10
20
50
100
200
that's it!
But I do have a nifty twist...
Here's BTC with only these MAs
And when the slope is negative they go red
Otherwise when up sloping:
10 = blue
20 = orange
50 = purple
100 = thin black
200 = thick black
And when the slope is negative they go red
Otherwise when up sloping:
10 = blue
20 = orange
50 = purple
100 = thin black
200 = thick black
There are many different moving average systems
Some use Exponential EMA, and different numbers 9 13 21 etc, & many variations from there
But I find these work well enough and the beauty is they seem to be active down to 1 & 5 minute levels, like these:
Some use Exponential EMA, and different numbers 9 13 21 etc, & many variations from there
But I find these work well enough and the beauty is they seem to be active down to 1 & 5 minute levels, like these:
Quick Index TA
Can go on about this too, but only so much time
See #MarsiliosTA for ongoing intro to these methods, plus abbreviations in google sheet (link later)
DJI
Stunning steroid rally continues
DJI bull victory above YR1 (arrow) - not near long term level currently
Can go on about this too, but only so much time
See #MarsiliosTA for ongoing intro to these methods, plus abbreviations in google sheet (link later)
DJI
Stunning steroid rally continues
DJI bull victory above YR1 (arrow) - not near long term level currently
DJI daily
But unlike others no new high last week, and sitting on QR1 (red arrow)
If any trouble this will move below its SepP at 35230 (orange)
hm, DJI more easily bearish but usually the worst short, what to do
But unlike others no new high last week, and sitting on QR1 (red arrow)
If any trouble this will move below its SepP at 35230 (orange)
hm, DJI more easily bearish but usually the worst short, what to do
SPX
Floated above YR1, then above HR1 (red crosses & arrows respectively)
Testing DeMark YR1 - jeez I'd like for some real institutional pros to take a whack at this
For now level to watch 4540, showing daily as well - they are nibbling on hedges / shorts
Floated above YR1, then above HR1 (red crosses & arrows respectively)
Testing DeMark YR1 - jeez I'd like for some real institutional pros to take a whack at this
For now level to watch 4540, showing daily as well - they are nibbling on hedges / shorts
#MarsiliosTA
Follow up on S & R levels to show a couple short term examples
Weekly & daily pivots important for trend, and pullbacks to the WP or DP often great buys in uptrend.
But also because entire structure is more clustered, S & R levels a lot more likely to trade.
Follow up on S & R levels to show a couple short term examples
Weekly & daily pivots important for trend, and pullbacks to the WP or DP often great buys in uptrend.
But also because entire structure is more clustered, S & R levels a lot more likely to trade.
BTC 1H chart with
All levels plus weeklies
Fibonacci weeklies in red
DeMark weeklies in orange
No daily levels for clarity
This week near tag of yearly level (YR2 as support), but no other half-year, quarterly or monthly levels in play at all
Action all on weeklies
All levels plus weeklies
Fibonacci weeklies in red
DeMark weeklies in orange
No daily levels for clarity
This week near tag of yearly level (YR2 as support), but no other half-year, quarterly or monthly levels in play at all
Action all on weeklies
Arrows are just showing turns - sometimes chop, it happens
1st brown = fail at WP then down
1st red = Fib S1 low
green = WS1 low of week
2nd brown = WP chop a bit
2nd red = Fib R1 resistance
3rd brown = WP pullback hold
Crypto traders if you are not interested this...
1st brown = fail at WP then down
1st red = Fib S1 low
green = WS1 low of week
2nd brown = WP chop a bit
2nd red = Fib R1 resistance
3rd brown = WP pullback hold
Crypto traders if you are not interested this...
#MarsiliosTA
The pivot is the basic bull/bear dividing line, so trend indicator
Most pivot systems include support & resistance levels, so these are potential turn indicators
There are various formulas:
R1 = P*2 - L(ow)
S1 = P*2 - H(igh)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
The pivot is the basic bull/bear dividing line, so trend indicator
Most pivot systems include support & resistance levels, so these are potential turn indicators
There are various formulas:
R1 = P*2 - L(ow)
S1 = P*2 - H(igh)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
But don't worry about the math because all we need to do is turn them on in tradingview or whatever you are using
So here is DJI with yearly levels only, P & S & R
2020 panic covid low, smart $ bought YS3
Recently YR1 saw minor selling a few times, then turned into support
So here is DJI with yearly levels only, P & S & R
2020 panic covid low, smart $ bought YS3
Recently YR1 saw minor selling a few times, then turned into support
SPX
2020 covid low on YS2
Similar "resistance into support" idea on YR1 later in 2020 and again this year
2020 covid low on YS2
Similar "resistance into support" idea on YR1 later in 2020 and again this year
#MarsiliosTA
See yday for the intro
Interest in pivots started b/c software I was using had them as option to turn on daily & weekly
Then at small fund with a real deal Bloomberg (not cheap) I poked around and saw:
yearly, half-year, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily
See yday for the intro
Interest in pivots started b/c software I was using had them as option to turn on daily & weekly
Then at small fund with a real deal Bloomberg (not cheap) I poked around and saw:
yearly, half-year, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily
The formula is the same, just the prior period changes
If you are only a long term investor then you can just use yearly, half-year, quarterly if you want to be more active; rest mostly a waste of time
If you are only a long term investor then you can just use yearly, half-year, quarterly if you want to be more active; rest mostly a waste of time
If swing trading then good to know where big levels are b/c touches are rare but important when they happen
but using monthly, weekly & daily a lot
So in charts that follow I have taken off everything except pivots
We'll get to support & resistance soon, for now pivots only
but using monthly, weekly & daily a lot
So in charts that follow I have taken off everything except pivots
We'll get to support & resistance soon, for now pivots only
#MarsiliosTA
Hashtagging topic so easier to find during week if interested
2 charts attached:
ARKK daily
BTC 30m
A lot going on - I can glance & absorb a lot of info
But starting out might look messy
Going to unpack, indicator by indicator
Hashtagging topic so easier to find during week if interested
2 charts attached:
ARKK daily
BTC 30m
A lot going on - I can glance & absorb a lot of info
But starting out might look messy
Going to unpack, indicator by indicator
#MarsiliosTA
The Yearly Pivot
I am giving away an amazing tool that not so many people know about, compared to say, daily 200 moving avg (D200MA) or 50MA, mentioned in CNBC all the time
Here's the same ARKK daily chart with only this on there
OK it was a great year for the YP
The Yearly Pivot
I am giving away an amazing tool that not so many people know about, compared to say, daily 200 moving avg (D200MA) or 50MA, mentioned in CNBC all the time
Here's the same ARKK daily chart with only this on there
OK it was a great year for the YP
But also GBTC and ETHE
