Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #MarsiliosTA

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Bollinger bands

Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA

It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results

If really interested read the book by the creator
Here's BTC with just the daily BBs

So how does this work?

Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered

Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for

To explain...
Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation

You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
Read 9 tweets
Also should I continue TA threads?

See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to

simple MAs
tweaked MACD

combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance

if continuing, then:
Bollinger bands & how I use them - divergence & spotting reversals, 1st stage in change of trend

Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)

Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations
Then we have risk management, when to hold, when to cut, stops

Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else
Read 4 tweets

People asking how to turn on pivots - just use tradingview's built in indicator where you can select yearly. half-year, quarter, etc what you want to check

You can turn it on more than once for different timeframes or use different tabs, then customize the lines

not based on quant study
& did not do very rigorous experiment

played around until found settings that seemed to line up with pivot & MA signals a lot of the time

regular is 12 26 9

mine much faster - 7 15 5

more signals - if too many zoom out, or be rigorous on filter
So a lot of arrows in the MACD here, change of signal line

But on the way up above rising MAs & pivots longs profit, shorts easy to filter out - you don't short above a 50MA that is screaming higher or on top of monthly pivot

Just think about the 3 together & see when line up
Read 5 tweets
Next TA lesson - #MarsiliosTA

Sooo simple


Simple Moving Averages


that's it!

But I do have a nifty twist...
Here's BTC with only these MAs

And when the slope is negative they go red

Otherwise when up sloping:

10 = blue
20 = orange
50 = purple
100 = thin black
200 = thick black
There are many different moving average systems

Some use Exponential EMA, and different numbers 9 13 21 etc, & many variations from there

But I find these work well enough and the beauty is they seem to be active down to 1 & 5 minute levels, like these:
Read 6 tweets
Quick Index TA

Can go on about this too, but only so much time

See #MarsiliosTA for ongoing intro to these methods, plus abbreviations in google sheet (link later)

Stunning steroid rally continues
DJI bull victory above YR1 (arrow) - not near long term level currently
DJI daily
But unlike others no new high last week, and sitting on QR1 (red arrow)

If any trouble this will move below its SepP at 35230 (orange)

hm, DJI more easily bearish but usually the worst short, what to do
Floated above YR1, then above HR1 (red crosses & arrows respectively)
Testing DeMark YR1 - jeez I'd like for some real institutional pros to take a whack at this
For now level to watch 4540, showing daily as well - they are nibbling on hedges / shorts
Read 8 tweets

Follow up on S & R levels to show a couple short term examples

Weekly & daily pivots important for trend, and pullbacks to the WP or DP often great buys in uptrend.

But also because entire structure is more clustered, S & R levels a lot more likely to trade.
BTC 1H chart with

All levels plus weeklies
Fibonacci weeklies in red
DeMark weeklies in orange

No daily levels for clarity

This week near tag of yearly level (YR2 as support), but no other half-year, quarterly or monthly levels in play at all

Action all on weeklies
Arrows are just showing turns - sometimes chop, it happens

1st brown = fail at WP then down
1st red = Fib S1 low
green = WS1 low of week
2nd brown = WP chop a bit
2nd red = Fib R1 resistance
3rd brown = WP pullback hold

Crypto traders if you are not interested this...
Read 5 tweets

The pivot is the basic bull/bear dividing line, so trend indicator

Most pivot systems include support & resistance levels, so these are potential turn indicators

There are various formulas:

R1 = P*2 - L(ow)
S1 = P*2 - H(igh)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
But don't worry about the math because all we need to do is turn them on in tradingview or whatever you are using

So here is DJI with yearly levels only, P & S & R

2020 panic covid low, smart $ bought YS3

Recently YR1 saw minor selling a few times, then turned into support
2020 covid low on YS2

Similar "resistance into support" idea on YR1 later in 2020 and again this year
Read 11 tweets

See yday for the intro

Interest in pivots started b/c software I was using had them as option to turn on daily & weekly

Then at small fund with a real deal Bloomberg (not cheap) I poked around and saw:

yearly, half-year, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily
The formula is the same, just the prior period changes

If you are only a long term investor then you can just use yearly, half-year, quarterly if you want to be more active; rest mostly a waste of time
If swing trading then good to know where big levels are b/c touches are rare but important when they happen

but using monthly, weekly & daily a lot

So in charts that follow I have taken off everything except pivots

We'll get to support & resistance soon, for now pivots only
Read 13 tweets

Hashtagging topic so easier to find during week if interested

2 charts attached:
ARKK daily
BTC 30m

A lot going on - I can glance & absorb a lot of info

But starting out might look messy

Going to unpack, indicator by indicator

The Yearly Pivot

I am giving away an amazing tool that not so many people know about, compared to say, daily 200 moving avg (D200MA) or 50MA, mentioned in CNBC all the time

Here's the same ARKK daily chart with only this on there

OK it was a great year for the YP
But also GBTC and ETHE
Read 10 tweets

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