Trinh Profile picture
Mother, wife, daughter, EM Asia economist @natixis; non-resident scholar @carnegieendow; Cheer-leader of life/markets; Vietnamese, Californian, living in HK

Sep 6, 2021, 7 tweets

Interesting timing for the ECB as prices already rose rather high & now power prices rising further on higher costs! Rally for gas & coal.

Question: What is Germany #1 source of energy?
It is phasing out nuclear + coal.

Answer: Oil & natural gas.

Check this out: Energy consumption in Germany.

Look at solar and wind. Look at how much it increased by? And juxtapose that to the MASSIVE INCREASE OF NATURAL GAS.

It has consumed more natural gas from Russia. That smudge of solar + wind got a lot of press but man it's small.

Two things:

When people write about how "green" Germany is, they are not talking about German consumption of energy but SUPPLY. So look at below, that's Germany's production of "green" or <coal & >wind + >solar.

But its CONSUMPTION is more imported fossil fuel - Russian ones!👌🏻

Okay, some people don't like that the renewable part of "consumption" misconstrues the source of energy supply as a lot of domestic electricity produced by wind + solar.

Here it is showing sources of energy supply. Natural gas supply has gone up & they're imported from Russia.

If u want to write a good story on energy consumption or supply in Germany then: Consumption has gone down & production of renewables have gone up vs coal & nuclear.

Dig deeper then u see total energy supply of renewable small, even if higher, & natural gas 🇷🇺dependency higher👌🏻

Back to that Bbg story:
a) While renewables have increased in share of total power generation to 41%, natural gas is 17% & coal is still 26% (Lignite + hard coal).
b)If natural gas price goes up = electricity price goes up
Electricity is not #1 source of energy, oil & gas are👈🏻

In other words, the rise of commodity prices, particularly natural gas, is pushing up input costs, including but not limited to electricity prices.

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