Thread by @btcfeen

A little thread on why I think crypto continues to pump for the next 6 months or so…

Macro: the fed is in a crazy spot right now. With debt/gdp at 130% and and entitlements and defense spending at aths, they can’t let rates rise. This means they have to buy bonds. So they are financing the usg’s debt. They need to keep real yields under -5% or more

Until debt/gdp is below 80 percent so they can normalize policy. If they don’t the debt/gdp gets worse as debt has been added at a 9% CAGR since 2008. So they have to print, all while fooling the bond market into think inflation ISN’T transitory. If the bond market gets spooked,

Then the fed has to buy even MORE bonds to keep rates from rising. See why it’s such a touchy situation? They are literally walking a tightrope above Niagara Falls with a blindfold. One false step and it’s over.

One more thing to note is they can’t stop injecting liquidity to the market Bc if they do stocks will falls and so will tax receipts. Gdp falls even more

Margin: margin is still very low right now. Premium is running negative all while funding is neutral. Markets haven’t topped like this. Generally those stats mean a bottom is way closer than a top

Hidden margin in the way of taxes will need to be paid by oct 15. We are clear for takeoff after that

Fundamentals: balance on exchanges is as low as ever. A supply squeeze will happen and price will have to go higher to unlock more supply. The only reason for this recent drop was derivatives getting a bit overheated

Ta: while this still could technically be a complacency leg, I do not think it is. For the reasons above and below

I think 2013 analog makes more sense than 2017. Big pump, big dump, big pump. 6 months or so in between

pretty damn close

as long as we stay closing weeklies above the 50 wma i have no worries. price always bounces on the first test. a close below on the 2nd time testing is no good

this is the 20wma. it should confirm as support soon for confirmation that we are still bull.

s/r flip.

3d chart. a lot going on here. last year bottomed on fall equinox and went on a tear. pumped in late july while premium went high, dumped early sept into the 50 ma. stoch reset. premium turning negative again just like last year after the dump

this is what happens if i copy the bars from that dump last sept to spring equinox. seems realistic. I have said we will hit 200k + for a while. now it is go time!

for my final closing remarks... fuck the bears. why short the best performing asset of all time? HFSP.