Thread by @CORF_FPL

📝 A GW5 THREAD

🔎 GW4
📸 Snapshot
🍕 Takeaway

🔎 GW5
🎯 Fixtures to Target
©️ Captaincy
🔮 Predictions
📉 Differentials
🔥 Hot Property
🗑️ Top Binned
⚖️ Bus Team

A thread built to provoke some initial food for thought ahead of GW5..

#FPL #FPLCommunity #GW5

📸 GW4 SNAPSHOT - TEAMS
➡️ DEFENCE

Games: 10
Clean Sheets: 9

Shots Conceded
🔺Most: LEE, NOR (30)
🔻Least: CRY (2)

Shots in Box Conceded
🔺Most: LEE (22)
🔻Least: CRY (1)

Big Chances Conceded
🔺Most: WAT (6)
🔻Least: 7 teams (0)

xGC
🔺Most: LEE (3.48)
🔻Least: CRY (0.16)

📸 GW4 SNAPSHOT - TEAMS
➡️ ATTACK

Games: 10
Goals: 23

Shots
🔺Most: LIV, ARS (30)
🔻Least: TOT (2)

Big Chances
🔺Most: WOL (6)
🔻Least: 7 teams (0)

xG
🔺Most: LIV (3.48)
🔻Least: TOT (0.16)

📸 GW4 SNAPSHOT - PLAYERS

Points
1. Lukaku, Kovacic, Ronaldo, Marcal (13)

xG
1. Mane (1.37)
2. B. Silva (1.13)
3. Ronaldo (1.00)

xA
1. Jota (1.05)
2. Shaw (0.89)
3. Moutinho (0.88)

Big Chances
1. Mane (3)

Big Chances Created
1. Toney, Jota, Shaw, Moutinho (2)

🍕 GW4 TAKEAWAYS

🍟 WOL were great, could easily have had a few more goals vs WAT

🍔 TOT spanked by CRY, despite 3 wins in the opening 3 GWs I think they're a team to avoid right now

🌭 Lukaku, 2 shots 2 goals. Clinical

🌮 Ronaldo as expected, shoot on sight, 2 goals

💡 LOWLY OWNED EYE CATCHERS

▫️Gallagher: Another impressive display from the CHE loanee grabbing 2 assists - 3.4%

▫️Doucoure: 2 assists vs BUR in another impressive performance - 1.8%

▫️Cancelo: 90mins in all 4 games, a 12 pointer in GW4 - 7.8%

📋 WELCOME TO GW5

⏰ DEADLINE
FRI 17th September @ 6.30PM (UK)

🏆 EUROPE
MUN, MCI, CHE, LIV, WHU, LEI, TOT are all playing in Europe this midweek

📆 FIXTURES
NEW vs LEE
WOL vs BRE
BUR vs ARS
LIV vs CRY
MCI vs SOU
NOR vs WAT
AVL vs EVE
BHA vs LEI
WHU vs MUN
TOT vs CHE

TABLE ⤵️

🎯 FIXTURE TO TARGET
➡️ LIV vs CRY

LIV record vs CRY is emphatic, winning the last 8/8 games vs The Eagles scoring 24 goals, conceding just 5 times. LIV have had 99 shots (1st), 70 inside the box (1st), I think they'll still be too strong for a much improved CRY outfit!

LIV 3-0

🎯 FIXTURE TO TARGET
➡️ WOL vs BRE

Despite a frustrating opening 3 GWs to the season WOL finally got a well deserved 3 points vs WAT and should have won by a bigger margin. WOL look particularly strong defensively and can't help feel they are good value for a CS this weekend.

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ SALAH

7 goals from the previous 8 games vs CRY. 16 shots, 13 inside the box and 3 goals to his name in the opening 4 GWs of the season, he's looking really sharp.

Salah will undoubtedly be the most captained player in GW5, he's your safety in numbers pick!

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ MANE

His 9 goals in the last 8 games vs CRY cant go unnoticed. A hugely frustrating GW4 saw Mane have 10 shots (1st), 8 of which were inside the box, 3 considered to be big chances. He left with only 1 goal but offers managers a real differential option for GW5!

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ LUKAKU

2 shots 2 goals against AVL in GW4. Although owners might be a little worried about the lack of shots, they shouldn't be, he was clinical with the 2 chances he had. Goes up against a new look TOT defence GW5 (Romero/Sanchez) but still fancy him to return!

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ RONALDO

Ronaldo needs no second invitation to take a shot. A dream return to OT vs NEW saw him collect 2 goals. WHU will offer stiffer opposition in GW5 but I still fancy MUN to take 3 points, does Ronaldo provide us with a captaincy option every GW from here on?

🔮 PREDICTIONS
➡️ GW5 HIGHEST SCORERS

1. Salah - 8.19
2. Mane - 7.04
3. TAA - 6.60
4. Sterling - 6.20
5. Ronaldo - 6.10
6. Bamford - 6.10
7. Grealish - 6.03
8. Jota - 5.87
9. Robertson - 5.68
10. Matip - 5.64

* Taken from @FFH_HQ

🔮 PREDICTIONS
➡️ CLEAN SHEETS

1. MCI - 58%
2. LIV - 55%
3. WOL - 50%
4. CHE - 44%
5. ARS - 38%
6. NOR - 38%

➡️ OVER 2.5 GOALS

1. MCI - 53%
2. LIV - 49%
3. MUN - 27%
4. WOL - 25%
5. LEE - 23%
6. ARS - 22%

All eyes should be on MCI according to the good guys at @drafthound 🔎

📉 DIFFERENTIAL CENTRAL

🥇MANE
Price: £11.9m
Fixture: CRY (H)
TSB: 2.7%

🥈SARR
Price: £6.0m
Fixture: NOR (A)
TSB: 5.3%

🥉JIMENEZ
Price: £7.4m
Fixture: BRE (H)
TSB: 3.9%

🏅TIERNEY
Price: £4.9m
Fixture: BUR (A)
TSB: 6.0%

🔥 HOT PROPERTY

Players most bought IN ahead of GW5 so far:

1. Ronaldo - 785k
2. Lukaku - 395k
3. Pogba - 243k
4. Gallagher - 220k
5. Marcal - 211k
6. Gray - 204k

The premium duo of Ronaldo and Lukaku continue to be in demand. There'll be a lot more on the double up from GW5!

🗑️ TOP BINNED

Players most booted OUT ahead of GW5 so far:

1. Antonio - 890k
2. Bruno - 305k
3. Son - 289k
4. Ings - 235k
5. DCL - 214k
6. Tsimikas - 163k

Antonio's early form goes out the window, his suspension for GW5 is likely to result in 1mill+ sales. Crazy turnaround

⚒️ WHAT TO DO WITH ANTONIO?

The urge will be to sell Antonio for Bamford or Jimenez, but he misses one game before going up against a depleted LEE defence GW6 & BRE in GW7.

If your squad allows for it, I'd suggest trying to hold on to Antonio! 😬

🔄DCL/ANTONIO REPLACEMENTS

Those looking to replace DCL or don't fancy holding Antonio; my go to replacement if you can afford it would probably be Lukaku. CHE run of games from GW7 is simply dazzling.

Alternatively Jimenez or Bamford seem the obvious affordable alternatives.

⚪ LEEDS FIXTURE SWING

They've been disappointing so far this season but it's worth noting that Leeds fixtures turn for the better from GW5 to GW15.

Raphinha, Bamford & Meslier seem the go to options whilst the arrival of Dan James casts some doubt around Harrison's minutes.

🦅 CONOR GALLAGHER

Mins: 270
Goals: 2
Assists: 2

Shots: 10
Big Chances: 5
xG: 2.27
xA: 1.30
FPL Points: 26

He's on corners, free kicks and just wants to get involved in everything good that CRY do.

£5.6M and just 3.7% TSB, he's a seriously good budget option moving forward!

🔮 GW5-GW10 PREDICTIONS

1. Ronaldo - 41.1
2. Bruno - 34.7
3. Salah - 33.8
4. Lukaku - 31.9
5. Mane - 31.3
6. Torres - 30.3
7. Dias - 29.8
8. Kane - 29.4
9. Vardy - 29.1
10. KDB - 29.0
11. Jota - 28.8
12. TAA - 28.8

* From @FantasyFootyFix

📝 GW5 TIPS

▫️IMO you should try holding on to Antonio, but sell DCL who looks set to miss a few weeks

▫️7 teams play in Europe this midweek. Hold off making moves until you know players have made it through unscathed. Patience pays

⚖️ GW5 BUS TEAM

🔄 FT: Benrahma to Raphinha
©️ Captain: Salah
🌍 OR: 15k

🟥 Benrahma

🟧 Ronaldo, Jota, Greenwood

🟨 White, Ayling, Traore, Antonio

🟩 Salah, TAA, Shaw, Sanchez, Steele, Liveramento, Scarlett

➡️ Operation target Chelsea GW7/GW8 is firmly on the cards for me