Aaron Astor Profile picture
Historian of the 19th Century U.S. and Professor at Maryville College. Author of Rebels on the Border and Civil War along Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau

Sep 15, 2021, 8 tweets

Not a whole lot of Dems voting for recall. And with Indies split 50-50, this thing had no chance.

Also, doesn't look like there was a big revolt of parents of school-age kids.

LOL - More Trump voters voted against recall than Biden voters voted for recall.

OK, now I want to know who the 18% are who think Newsom's covid policies are not strict enough, but who still want to recall him.

Oy - Newsom's job approval is positive, 54-43. You don't recall a governor whose approvals are in net positive territory!

Good God - Orange County voting against recall by 17 with 61% already reported!

This is just mail-in votes, so OC is not going to end up voting against recall by 17 points. But if 61% of the vote is in, it is pretty much assured that "No" will prevail in Orange County in the end. And probably by several points.

And here's the kicker: map of recent covid hot spots, vaccination rates and recall support cohere pretty well.

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