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Aaron Astor Profile picture
@AstorAaron
Sep 15, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Not a whole lot of Dems voting for recall. And with Indies split 50-50, this thing had no chance.
Also, doesn't look like there was a big revolt of parents of school-age kids.
LOL - More Trump voters voted against recall than Biden voters voted for recall.
OK, now I want to know who the 18% are who think Newsom's covid policies are not strict enough, but who still want to recall him.
Oy - Newsom's job approval is positive, 54-43. You don't recall a governor whose approvals are in net positive territory!
Good God - Orange County voting against recall by 17 with 61% already reported!
This is just mail-in votes, so OC is not going to end up voting against recall by 17 points. But if 61% of the vote is in, it is pretty much assured that "No" will prevail in Orange County in the end. And probably by several points.
And here's the kicker: map of recent covid hot spots, vaccination rates and recall support cohere pretty well.

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More from @AstorAaron

Aaron Astor Profile picture
Mar 2
Just curious but what is the typical percentage of a Presidential election that did not vote in the prior Presidential election? 2020 was the highest turnout in a century, BTW. This NYT poll suggests that 17% of 2024 voters didn't vote at all in 2020. Is that...high? Image
Look in the right-most column for "did not vote in 2020".
On the flip side, the recalled 2020 vote is much more pro-Biden than it actually was. So maybe they tried to correct for that in weighting? I don't know. I know that recalled vote preference is often wrong, but I'm not sure about recalling whether you voted at all is wrong.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Dec 28, 2023
A sudden reminder that the Republican Party was actually founded under an oak tree in Jackson, Michigan or at a little schoolhouse in Ripon, Wisconsin or at a thousand "Anti-Nebraska" meetings in the Spring of 1854. Some in places like Berlin, New Hampshire.
They were former Whigs, former Democrats and former Liberty party people who agreed on one thing: slavery shall not extend any further. They organized against what they called "The Slave Power," which controlled the Democratic Party (thanks partly to a 2/3 nominating rule).
In defense of slavery, first and foremost, was South Carolina. From Pierce Butler to Robert Hayne to John C. Calhoun to George McDuffie to Robert Barnwell Rhett, South Carolina's leaders made clear that a threat to the future of slavery meant the Union shall be dissolved.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Nov 5, 2023
This is the biggest problem with a lot of the discourse around any one state plan in Israel-Palestine. Does the acceptable plan in the West - secular, binational, robust civil rights for all - have sizable support among either Israelis or Palestinians?
Personally, I could accept this as much as I can a true two-state solution. But how many Palestinians want this? How many Israelis? As mangled and flawed as the Oslo plan was, there are still more people who support THAT in I-P than the Western-style secular lib/dem one state.
One argument is that the current leadership on both sides is adamantly opposed to this - or a two-state solution - but that maybe after the war, both extremes will be jettisoned and a "silent majority" of moderates will push a singular secular, binational, liberal state. Will it?
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Nov 1, 2023
"Proportionality" in war: “expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated”. ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treatie…
Proportionality, thus, is not necessarily about comparing numbers of civilian deaths. It has to do with "direct military advantage anticipated" per Geneva Conventions Article 51. Sections 5-7 are instructive in full: Image
Sec 7 addresses human shields, the use of which clearly constitutes a war crime (Note: war crime by one party does not allow war crimes by other party). So the question of proportionality stands - what is the military objective & are civilian deaths "excessive" in relation to it?
Read 9 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Oct 26, 2023
If Palestinians are to be liberated from the “settler-colony” that is Israel, you need to orient your message toward the metropole - which means the US public. The language matters. So if you have to explain why “From the River to the Sea” isn’t actually genocide, you’re losing.
Nobody is going to settle this conflict through force alone. There is a propaganda war. And that means paying attention to different audiences. A Hamas slogan is going to backfire in the US - in fact, it’s a reason support for Israel keeps going up in the US weeks after Oct 7.
The headwinds for the Palestinian cause in the US are massive and generally well known. Navigating them is difficult - though not impossible. But that means no longer “preaching to the converted” with purist militant slogans.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Oct 10, 2023
[Thread} We hear a lot about putting the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict in historical context. As a historian, I couldn't agree more. But, there is not one single historical context. I would argue that there are three, and all three affect the present: Old, Middle & Recent.
The Old Context goes from Canaan to the Ancient Hebrews to the Roman destruction of the Second Temple and subsequent Jewish Diaspora. And then there was the the arrival of the Arabs, the Crusades and the Ottoman conquest of the Levant.
The Middle Context begins in the 1880s with the emergence of two distinct nationalisms: Zionism (emerging in the Russian Empire) and Pan-Arabism. The Balfour Declaration of 1917 tried to reconcile both but led to tension and violence in the interwar decades.
Read 9 tweets

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