Aaron Astor Profile picture
Sep 15, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Not a whole lot of Dems voting for recall. And with Indies split 50-50, this thing had no chance.
Also, doesn't look like there was a big revolt of parents of school-age kids.
LOL - More Trump voters voted against recall than Biden voters voted for recall.
OK, now I want to know who the 18% are who think Newsom's covid policies are not strict enough, but who still want to recall him.
Oy - Newsom's job approval is positive, 54-43. You don't recall a governor whose approvals are in net positive territory!
Good God - Orange County voting against recall by 17 with 61% already reported!
This is just mail-in votes, so OC is not going to end up voting against recall by 17 points. But if 61% of the vote is in, it is pretty much assured that "No" will prevail in Orange County in the end. And probably by several points.
And here's the kicker: map of recent covid hot spots, vaccination rates and recall support cohere pretty well.

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More from @AstorAaron

May 7
Talk anybody who teaches at the college or K-12 level (esp. HS) and you will hear this: AI is making a mockery of every skill we try to teach. I'm not talking about ideas here. I'm talking basic ability to analyze a text & write an essay. Every out-of-class essay is suspect now.
You can make more assignments to be done in class. You can talk about all the wonderful things that AI can help facilitate. But if there is a way to short cut the research and writing process, students will take it. And there are just no real answers for this.
Another thing - People often say AI-detectors are not trustworthy. And yet, I've used "" (rated most accurate) and checked essays this semester and from early 2022 before ChatGPT. 100% of the older essays came back "100% human." Only ~50% from Spring 2025.undetectable.ai
Read 5 tweets
Feb 4
Wait, so a person accepted the Federal worker buyout, including replying with "Resign" and then...nothing happened? Is this for real? Image
Also, if you read the comments below that article, it's obvious that about 90% of the people didn't even read it. Just a complete waste of pixels. This platform is about as useless as DOGE's "buyout" plan, I guess.
Is there a way to block whole masses of people? Like, I don't think I've ever encountered anybody here with the word "Based" in their profile that wasn't a completely useless moron.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 1, 2024
We're in an ongoing epistemic crisis - we don't "know" what we think we "know" - and the causes are pretty clear: a combination of institutional arrogance and highly decentralized knowledge sources. The unanswered question is: what do we do about it beyond tearing old ways down?
Here is where I think the liberal arts at its best is equipped to respond. By that I mean an open and honest inquiry into multiple realms of knowledge without prejudice, siloing or ideological rigidity. Focus on the logic of argumentation and the limits of personal experience.
Interrogate all sources - but don't let yourself fall into a nihilism trap where "nothing matters because everybody is just lying". Read widely across disciplines, ideologies and perspectives and discern truths among various knowledge sources.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
Let's be honest here: This was an across-the-board shift away from the Democratic Party. Not just one demo (though Hispanics shifted the most). Two main reasons: Inflation and Democratic priorities and language that just doesn't appeal to non-college people (esp. men). Image
Yes, a younger Joe Biden was able to communicate to many of these voters. I honestly think Harris herself did as well as she could have in this campaign on this. She didn't lean into identity politics, etc. But I think some of the experiences since 2020 really alienated people.
I had honestly thought Dems would pay the price for all that in 2022 but Dems largely escaped punishment for prolonged Covid school closures or new waves of migrants or crime spikes or even inflation. And Biden himself was unable to communicate any improvements in the economy.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 2, 2024
Holy shit! Selzer has Harris winning Iowa by 3!!! desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…
Here's why everybody goes nuts of Ann Selzer's Iowa poll. Of course, she could be completely wrong this time. Nobody expected this result. I sure as hell didn't. But she's earned her reputation.
FWIW, I think this is an outlier. It HAS to be. But an outlier could be her missing by 7 points...and that would still be a great result for Harris in Iowa. This was my take on the poll earlier today. You can see the range of outcomes I thought "extreme."
Read 6 tweets
Oct 31, 2024
Something odd in that Fox News PA poll. The 2-way LV screen has Trump up 50-49. It has Trump winning whites just 52-48 and Harris winning non-whites 72-28. In 2020, whites were 81% of the PA electorate. If that were the case in 2024, this should be Harris up 52.5 to 47.4. Image
In order to get to a Trump lead of 50-49, the LV sample would have to be 93% white instead of 81% white.
In 2020, Trump won PA whites by 57-42, so if he's winning whites by just 52-48, he's in very big trouble. Strange, then, that they would list the white vote at 52-48 and then show Trump winning overall 50-49...even without a massive non-white gain. So, where ARE the non-whites???
Read 7 tweets

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