Thread by @therealarod1984

9/16 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with big drop of -220
2) Cases big decline vs last week
3) Pos% & Testing, like cases, are all over the place.
4) 372 Fatalities reported, -36 vs last week.

1/n
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9/16 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/8 at 13.58%
* We will see what Monday looks like as far as shake out on all the post-school testing, and Labor Day hiccups, its all a mess
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.68 to 0.72

2/n
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9/16 Cases

* Case Peak 9/14
* 14.9K Cases reported, vs 23.7K last Thurs
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 3%. Literally all over the place
* Meh

3/n
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9/16 Hospitalizations

* -220 to 12597. Last Wed was -34
* Lowest Census since 8/17
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -4.2%
* Another big drop mid-week. Was hoping for sub 12.5K census by end of the weekend but that isn't going to be a problem.

4/n
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9/16 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down a huge 244 from last Thurs. 7DMA down 299 from peak on 8/23
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 7.8% Week over Week
* TMC 7DMA down an 9.9% WoW. SETRAC not out yet today, yesterday was -15.3% WoW
* Admits look great

5/n
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9/16 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/25, 2020 thru 7/25, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020 - 6894, 260 7DMA
* 2021 - 5765, 242 7DMA
* Despite WAY higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~17% lower than 2020.

6/n
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9/16 Fatalities Part 2

* 372 Reported. -36 from Last Thurs
* 92% of the fatalities reported from within last 3 weeks. 70% within last 2.
* We are reporting mostly into post-hospitalization peak now. Likely will be a large gap between fatalities and the hosp peak line

7/n
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9/16 - Fatalities Primer

8/n
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9/16 Conclusion

* Great day all around. Hospitalizations really starting to drop like a rock. Should be a really good weekend.

9/end