1) Hospitalizations with big drop of -220 2) Cases big decline vs last week 3) Pos% & Testing, like cases, are all over the place. 4) 372 Fatalities reported, -36 vs last week.
* Total positivity rate as of 9/8 at 13.58%
* We will see what Monday looks like as far as shake out on all the post-school testing, and Labor Day hiccups, its all a mess
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.68 to 0.72
2/n .
9/16 Cases
* Case Peak 9/14
* 14.9K Cases reported, vs 23.7K last Thurs
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 3%. Literally all over the place
* Meh
3/n .
9/16 Hospitalizations
* -220 to 12597. Last Wed was -34
* Lowest Census since 8/17
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -4.2%
* Another big drop mid-week. Was hoping for sub 12.5K census by end of the weekend but that isn't going to be a problem.
4/n .
9/16 - Hosp Covid Admits
* Statewide Admits down a huge 244 from last Thurs. 7DMA down 299 from peak on 8/23
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 7.8% Week over Week
* TMC 7DMA down an 9.9% WoW. SETRAC not out yet today, yesterday was -15.3% WoW
* Admits look great
5/n .
9/16 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/25, 2020 thru 7/25, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020 - 6894, 260 7DMA
* 2021 - 5765, 242 7DMA
* Despite WAY higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~17% lower than 2020.
6/n .
9/16 Fatalities Part 2
* 372 Reported. -36 from Last Thurs
* 92% of the fatalities reported from within last 3 weeks. 70% within last 2.
* We are reporting mostly into post-hospitalization peak now. Likely will be a large gap between fatalities and the hosp peak line
Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary
1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:
* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points
2/n
Battleground state summary - Page 2
* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.