Brannigan Barrett Profile picture
'Edge is found within the application of the strategy' Professional Trader. IronMan Triathlete. Building systems to objectify decision-making process

Sep 30, 2021, 8 tweets

Lets play a little game.......what you see is the UK y/y house price change. We going to guess what happened from macro-standpoint around these 4 turning points in house price trend....who wants to play? #trading #economics

Point 1: #BOE increases there QE programme by additional 50bn and signals more easing to come in pipeline in order to ensure inflation doesn't drop below 2%

Point 2: #Carney surprises the markets turning hawkish. But note , house prices were up 11% in the prior year and #BOE was getting nervous about a big old bubble!!!

Point 3: #BOE discussing negative rates as possibility. At same time governor #bailey pumps another 100bn QE and says they no financing government.

Point 4: #BOE turns hawkish as inflation expectations 5y5y breakevens head toward 4%!!!

Conclusion: NEVER listen to an estate agent. They are not economists. They are great for understanding short term stock/flow(6months). But beyond that they are about as useful as ......(fill in your own blanks)! That said. Recognise this is a MAJOR top for global property markets

If you are buying now, you have an excessively high risk of being in negative equity for the next decade. Whilst i respect everyone buys property for different reasons. I equally want people to recognise property is not risk-free trade!

Dont be suprised to see flat or negative real returns for property for next 10years. In otherwords, property will struggle to outpace #inflation over next 10years! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!

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