Thread by @therealarod1984

9/30 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

This thread is more for me than anyone else. Hope you get something out of it. Been looking forward to putting this out. I'm doing better. Appreciate all of your concerns and prayers over the past 2 weeks!

1/n
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9/30 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/22 at 11.29%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/22 were running 870K per week.
* Covidestim Rt at 0.60. Never seen it that low

2/n
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9/30 Cases

* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 9/30 7DMA is 8,204
* 7DMA has been in double digit decline for 15 days.

3/n
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9/30 Hospitalizations

* Single Day Peak was 8/25 - 13932
* Current census is 9005, lowest since 8/6
* 7DMA declining at a rate of 16.9% week over week.
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 13.57%. Peak was 21.88% on 8/30
* ICU beds in use lowest since 8/14

4/n
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9/30 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down 42% from their peak on 8/25
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 17% Week over Week
* TMC 7DMA declining 28.9% WoW
* New admissions are obviously leading indicators. Hospitalizations will continue trending down hard

5/n
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9/30 Fatalities Part 1

* Fatality Peak was 9/1. 313
* Compare to Winter peak of 1/13 - 381. Virtually identical hospitalization curve.
* Winter peak had 23 days with over 300 fatalities. Summer 2021 had 2.

6/n
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9/30 Fatalities Part 2

* Green circles show the stark difference between this wave & the previous 2. Fatality peak is in, its been 30 days. This wave simply not as fatal as Winter 2020
* Summer 2020 will likely still be more fatal than Summer 2021 despite 35%+ less hosps

7/n

9/30 Conclusion

* Full decline in leading through trailing indicators
* I won't be doing this everyday going forward but will report couple of times per week.
* Will stay focused on PCR & Antigen testing & Pos% watching for the next wave
* Thanks again for your prayers!

8/end