This thread is more for me than anyone else. Hope you get something out of it. Been looking forward to putting this out. I'm doing better. Appreciate all of your concerns and prayers over the past 2 weeks!
1/n .
9/30 Indicators
* Total positivity rate as of 9/22 at 11.29%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/22 were running 870K per week.
* Covidestim Rt at 0.60. Never seen it that low
2/n .
9/30 Cases
* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 9/30 7DMA is 8,204
* 7DMA has been in double digit decline for 15 days.
3/n .
9/30 Hospitalizations
* Single Day Peak was 8/25 - 13932
* Current census is 9005, lowest since 8/6
* 7DMA declining at a rate of 16.9% week over week.
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 13.57%. Peak was 21.88% on 8/30
* ICU beds in use lowest since 8/14
4/n .
9/30 - Hosp Covid Admits
* Statewide Admits down 42% from their peak on 8/25
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 17% Week over Week
* TMC 7DMA declining 28.9% WoW
* New admissions are obviously leading indicators. Hospitalizations will continue trending down hard
5/n .
9/30 Fatalities Part 1
* Fatality Peak was 9/1. 313
* Compare to Winter peak of 1/13 - 381. Virtually identical hospitalization curve.
* Winter peak had 23 days with over 300 fatalities. Summer 2021 had 2.
6/n .
9/30 Fatalities Part 2
* Green circles show the stark difference between this wave & the previous 2. Fatality peak is in, its been 30 days. This wave simply not as fatal as Winter 2020
* Summer 2020 will likely still be more fatal than Summer 2021 despite 35%+ less hosps
7/n
9/30 Conclusion
* Full decline in leading through trailing indicators
* I won't be doing this everyday going forward but will report couple of times per week.
* Will stay focused on PCR & Antigen testing & Pos% watching for the next wave
* Thanks again for your prayers!
8/end
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* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.
* A brief mid-week update on numbers through yesterday
* Pos% mini-bump fizzling out. Testing approaching record lows
* Hospitalizations continue setting record lows
* a 4 tweet thread today to go through the numbers
As of 3/28:
* Minibump up to 2.42%. Upcoming incomplete days show slowing growth
* Testing falls to 47K a day which approaches post-testing industrial complex lows of 43K in Jun 2021. Fewer people getting tested.
* Positive tests super flat at ~1150 per day
2/n
4/7 - Hospitalizations
* Covid Admissions 7DMA at new record low of 134/day, and still declining slightly
* Hospital Census 7DMA under 1000 for the first time ever
* Census % beds used by C19 at new low of 1.5%
* ICU Census approaches 200. Never saw below 400 before now