Brandon Beylo Profile picture
Writer | Investor | Listener || ~ There are no great businesses, only great bets. Nothing you read here is investment advice. Read 👉 https://t.co/rVOdJUnxQI

Oct 5, 2021, 11 tweets

1/ Udemy filed its S-1 today with its proposed ticker of $UDMY

The company offers online education content to 44M+ users with 183K courses and over 65K instructors.

Here's a short thread on what I found interesting ...

Source: docoh.com/filing/1607939…

2/ Customer Value Proposition

$UDMY offers its customers three skill types:

1. Technical: Learn a new technology (coding, etc.)

2. Business: Biz & pro soft skill classes

3. Personal Dev: New hobbies and/or interests outside "core" professional objective

3/ Udemy Business (UB) Customer Value Prop

UB offers enterprise clients access to 11K of the highest-engaging courses for their employees. Usually charged on an annual subscription basis (1yr contract).

$UDMY has 8.6K UB customers and a Net Dollar Retention Rate of ~123%.

4/ Udemy's Instructor Value Prop

In 2020, $UDMY's instructors made a cumulative $161.4M in earnings.

The average instructor earned ~$2,950 and over 1K instructors earned >$1K.

5/ Udemy's Financials

$UDMY generated ~$430M in revenue in 2020. Here's how it breaks down:

- Consumer: $326.45M
- Enterprise: $103.45M

Consumer generates ~49% Gross Margins while Enterprise prints 65%+ GMs (pretty significant difference).

This explains $UDMY's LT plans.

6/ How $UDMY Generates LT Value

There are two levers $UDMY has to increase business value:

- Converting free cust. to paid
- Increasing Enterprise Business

Consumer biz can leverage new subscription offering.

Enterprise has <10% available seats filled so far (lots of room)

7/ Key Metrics To Track Progress

There are 3 key metrics to track for $UDMY's progress:

- Average Monthly Buyers: Cust. who buys via DTC offering

- UB Customers: Tracking number of seats $UDMY can fill for Enterprise clients (at 65%+ margins)

- Net Dollar Retention: >100%

8/ $UDMY Co-Founder Eren Bali

Eren came from the apricot orchards of rural Turkey and built a massive business. That's impressive.

Online learning changed Eren's life, and $UDMY is his way of giving back.

Read his founder letter below.

9/ Balance Sheet & Adjusted EBITDA

As of June 2021, $UDMY has $163M in cash against $279M in liabilities.

$162M of those liabilities, however, are deferred revenues.

Unfortunately, even after accounting for adjustments, $UDMY sports -7% Adj. EBITDA margins.

10/ Risks From Competition

Online education is one of the most competitive spaces out there.

Off the top of my head $UDMY competes with:

- Coursera $COUR
- Nerdy $NRDY
- edX
- Skillshare
- LinkedIn Learning

That's tough.

11/ Concluding Thoughts

After my initial brush-through of the S-1, I'm not convinced on who eventually wins this space.

Nor am I convinced $UDMY will successfully convert more Enterprise customers & free-to-paid consumers.

Time will tell.

Which company is your favorite?

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