Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Oct 14 to Oct 20 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Europe -
There are 3 #COVID19 zones in Europe:
- Green in Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9), landing [close to safe zones] [CH; NO]; ALB; Macedon;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others.
FR=1.02 and PT=1.05, close to safe zones;
PL=1.20; DK=1.19; NL=1.24 are rising again.

3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.15, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.13 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.19 (17.1%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.16 (45.3%)

4/9 - Africa -
Increase in #COVID19 cases in Gabon (R-eff=1.17), (4.9% received 1 dose);
Libya=0.95 is slowly landing (red), high mortality (21.0% received 1 dose).
Underreporting in many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.05, 37.7% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Israel (72.7%) is rapidly landing towards its safety zone, with high mort.
Iran is slowly landing, with remaining high mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.11) is rising in in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, while Thailand=0.94 is slowly landing, with medium mortality; Philippines and Malaysia are landing, with medium mortality levels, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.12, 81.2% received 1 dose) surges at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with med mortality, for 7 more d.

Australia=1.06, incr. (71.4%), low mort.

China; Taiwan; NZ=1.29, 59-73 cases/d; SK; Japan, Vietnam: safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada is plateauing in its #COVID19 epid activ, low mort, 78.7% 1 dose: Red in 6 prov/terr, green in Ontario, Orange in Alberta and BC.
The USA are landing towards their safety zone, (66.1%), green in Florida, orange in 14, red in 35 states, with high mort.

9/9 - Latin America
Brazil (R-eff=0.87, 73.2% 1 dose); El Salvador=1.0 plateau, med mort.; Belize=0.93; Domin Repub.=1.1 rise in their #COVID19 epid activ.
Cuba; Costa-Rica; Mexico landing, high mort.
Argentina; Colombia; Peru: safe.
Chile=1.10 leaving its safety zone, med mort.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0