Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Oct 15 to Oct 21 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing [close to safe zones]: ALB; Bos&Herz; [CH; NO]
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.04; PT=1.05, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.19; DK=1.18; NL=1.19, IRL=1.14 are rising again.

3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.14, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.14 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.6%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.15 (45.3%)

4/9 - Africa -
Increase in #COVID19 cases in Gabon (R-eff=1.08), (4.9% received 1 dose);
Libya=0.93 is slowly landing (red), high mortality (21.0% received 1 dose).
Underreporting in many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.06, 37.7% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Israel (72.7%) is rapidly landing towards its safety zone, with medium mortality.
Iran is slowly landing, with remaining high mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.14) is rising in in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, while Thailand=0.94 is slowly landing, with medium mortality; Philippines and Malaysia are landing, with medium mortality levels, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.11, 81.4% received 1 dose) surges at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with med mortality, for 7 more d.

Australia=1.06, incr. (71.4%), low mort.

China; Taiwan; NZ=1.28, 61-75 cases/d; SK; Japan, Vietnam: safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada is plateauing in its #COVID19 epid activ, med mort, 78.7% 1 dose: Red in 6 prov/terr, green in Ontario, Orange in Alberta; BC.
The USA are slowly landing towards their safety zone, (66.1%), green in Florida, orange in 16, red in 33 states, high mort.

9/9 - Latin America
Chile=1.12; Domin Repub.=1.08 are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones. El Salvador=0.97; Belize=0.95: plateau, medium mortality;
Cuba; Costa-Rica; Mexico: landing, high mort.
Brazil, Argentina; Colombia; Peru: safe.

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0