Thread by @BambroughKevin

Capex inflation will be a killer:

Delays in underground mining as well as some deferred open-pit metal production have caused an increase in estimated incremental funding requirement to $3.6 billion from the $2.4 billion expected in July. mining.com/turquoise-hill…

“Total costs for the move underground is now approaching $8 billion, up from the Rio’s original budget of $5.3 billion set in 2016.”

I promise you many #uranium projects are gonna do this as well but be much more extreme. By the time many of our beloved little uranium companies actually update feasibility studies and update costs 2-3 more times along the road to production we will see capex 2-3x

There is simply no fucking way capex estimates developed prior to 2020 will hold up even close. I think best plan for 2x at least this cycle. Every single input is going to be up dramatically plus time delays.

That’s why I often go big into companies like $lot that have historical production and infrastructure and the ability to ramp up to 3mln lbs per year. With out a huge spend. I’m not a geologist or mining engineer but I’ve made shit loads in mining

It’s cause I was raised to be skeptical and barely believe what any promoters tell me. Or even early estimates by trusted experts. I did well by timing the cycle and often buying someone’s fuck up / blow up from the last cycle at pennies on the dollar

Projects with historical spends of $1bln+ trading at $100mm or less. Buying infrastructure at pennies on the dollar and being able to look back at the historical opex cost is something I’ve often put my faith in.