Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Oct 17 to Oct 23 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Europe -
#COVID19 epidemiological tension is growing in NW:
- Green only in Spain and Italy;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) everywhere else:
FL=1.10; FR=1.07; DE=1.06; BE=1.05; PT=1.01; SE=0.98; NO=0.95; CH=0.93 moving away from their safe zones;
DK=1.16; NL=1.23, IRL=1.15 rising.

3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality:
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.20 (52.4); BG=1.18 (37.5); CZ=1.26 (57.6);SLK=1.14 (45.5);RU=1.09 (34.4);UKR=1.17 (17.9);PL=1.26 (52.7).

4/9 - Africa -
Libya (R-eff=0.94) is slowly landing (red), high mortality (21.3% received 1 dose).
Gabon=1.09 (5.6% received 1 dose), increase in #COVID19 cases;
Botswana=1.10 (22.8%), rise;
Underreporting in many countries.

5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.07, 37.8% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with low mortality.
Iran=0.96 is plateauing, with remaining high mortality;
Israel (72.8%) is landing towards its safety zone, with medium mortality.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.13) and Mongolia=1.11 are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low [and very high] mortality, while Thailand=0.99 is plateauing and Philippines and Malaysia are landing, with medium to high mortality, for 7 more days.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.0, 81.5% received 1 dose) may have reached its peak of #COVID19 activity, while mortality increases at medium levels.

Australia=1.01, plateau (72.2%), low mort.

China; Taiwan; NZ=1.18,53-62 cases/d; SK; Japan, Vietnam: safe zone.

8/9 - North America -
Canada is landing towards and close to its #COVID19 safe zone, med mort, 78.9% 1 dose: Red in 6 prov/terr, green in ONTR, Orange in ALBT; BC.
The USA are slowly landing towards their safe zone, (66.3%), green in Florida, orange 16, red 33 states, high mort.

9/9 - Latin America
Chile=1.14 (84.8% 1 dose); Uruguay=1.12 (79.4); Dominic Repub=1.05 are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones.
El Salvador=0.97/Belize=1.01: plateau, high/alarming mortality;
Cuba; Costa-Rica: landing, high mort.
Mexico; Brazil; Argentina; Colombia; Peru: safe

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0