NEW
UK govt has finally published details of its heat & buildings strategy, which will be out in full tomorrow
🎯new gas boiler ban* from 2035
💷£3.9bn funding inc £450m for heat pumps
📜shift levies off electricity bills over 10yrs
🔥decision on hydrogen heat in 2026
THREAD
First, why does this matter?
The UK's way off track against its legally-binding climate goals, inc net-zero by 2050 & the interim carbon budgets for late 2020s onwards
Pink scribble = gap btwn policies vs targets
carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-will-mi…
We can expect more on how govt expects to close gap tomorrow (?) w publication of delayed UK net-zero strategy
But heat and buildings probably the trickiest area in political terms: it's up close & personal, it could be disruptive – low-carbon heat's currently expensive
Overall, UK has made rapid recent progress thanks to nearly phasing out coal in power sector, but CO2 from homes is actually *increasing* making it the 2nd largest source of emissions after transport
Homes (largely their gas boilers) = 16% of UK GHGs
So what's in this new strategy?
🎯"Ban" on new gas boilers from 2035
Press release wording is loose, saying govt has a "confirmed ambition" that all new heating systems from 2035 will be low carbon
That's…not a ban
What does "confirmed ambition" mean?
Back in the Energy White Paper, govt said it "expected" new heating installs to be low carbon by the mid-2030s
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-ho…
Being a cynic, I'd say "confirmed ambition" is constructively ambiguous enough for all in Cabinet to agree to & to spin as appropriate
So…it's a ban! But also, not a ban!
Given press around this, I'm not surprised.
(+Basically if market/public treats as ban, it's a ban.)
(The press release stresses that "no-one will be forced to remove their existing fossil fuel boilers".
Anyone using the phrase "forced to rip out their boilers" should henceforth put £1 in the naughty jar.)
On to the funding…
💷 £3.9bn is…not anywhere close, even with existing spend, to making up the £9.2bn for home energy efficiency improvements pledged in the Tory manifesto
It'd hardly be 1st pledge to be broken, but still
carbonbrief.org/election-2019-…
There's a lot of ground to make up on energy efficiency, since Cameron "cut the green crap" and ended UK progress in 2013…
Not clear this new money bridges the gap. I await the verdict of @theCCCuk and others.
On heat pumps, the govt strategy stresses they will play a "key role" in all scenarios
That shouldn't be a surprise as it's what CCC, IEA and basically all recent studies have suggested
In terms of funding, £450m over 3yrs –at £5,000 per home– is just 30,000 installations/yr, barely an increase on current rates & WAY short of govt target for 600,000/yr by 2028 (it'd pay for 5% of that)
CCC says we need 100k/yr in existing homes to 2025
theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
But govt making big play on innovation, with £60m to help make heat pumps as cheap as or cheaper than gas boilers by 2030 – with cost reductions of 25-50% "expected" by 2025
*If* that happens, need for grants falls away
(Here's the latest on current heat pump costs from @JennyC_Hill at the CCC)
Another key enabling policy change in the strategy is…
📜shifting env/social levies off electricity bills, which govt says it will decide on next yr, with a view to making the move over 10yrs
Shifting levies off electricity bills would end the current perverse subsidy for fossil gas over cleaner electricity
-Gas boilers currently get a massive subsidy in CO2 terms due to not paying for their emissions
Media reports have suggested govt looking to move levies to gas. Press release silent on that.
Big political risks here & could be v regressive / increase fuel poverty w/out appropriate design
(Energy efficiency would help cut bills)
🔥 on hydrogen…despite all the media hype…
Govt leaving a decision on hydrogen heat until 2026
By then, govt saying heat pumps 50% cheaper + being installed at scale…
Draw your own conclusions 🤷♂️
(Don't be surprised if there is nevertheless plenty of coverage around hydrogen heat tomorrow – I've personally received a bunch of press releases touting it as a solution for low-carbon heat.)
Background in our hydrogen Q&A
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-do…
We'll have all the details for you @CarbonBrief once the full strategy document gets published
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