Thread by @DrSimEvans

NEW

UK govt has finally published details of its heat & buildings strategy, which will be out in full tomorrow

🎯new gas boiler ban* from 2035
💷£3.9bn funding inc £450m for heat pumps
📜shift levies off electricity bills over 10yrs
🔥decision on hydrogen heat in 2026

THREAD

First, why does this matter?

The UK's way off track against its legally-binding climate goals, inc net-zero by 2050 & the interim carbon budgets for late 2020s onwards

Pink scribble = gap btwn policies vs targets

carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-will-mi…

We can expect more on how govt expects to close gap tomorrow (?) w publication of delayed UK net-zero strategy

But heat and buildings probably the trickiest area in political terms: it's up close & personal, it could be disruptive – low-carbon heat's currently expensive

Overall, UK has made rapid recent progress thanks to nearly phasing out coal in power sector, but CO2 from homes is actually *increasing* making it the 2nd largest source of emissions after transport

Homes (largely their gas boilers) = 16% of UK GHGs

So what's in this new strategy?

🎯"Ban" on new gas boilers from 2035

Press release wording is loose, saying govt has a "confirmed ambition" that all new heating systems from 2035 will be low carbon

That's…not a ban

What does "confirmed ambition" mean?

Back in the Energy White Paper, govt said it "expected" new heating installs to be low carbon by the mid-2030s

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-ho…

Being a cynic, I'd say "confirmed ambition" is constructively ambiguous enough for all in Cabinet to agree to & to spin as appropriate

So…it's a ban! But also, not a ban!

Given press around this, I'm not surprised.

(+Basically if market/public treats as ban, it's a ban.)

(The press release stresses that "no-one will be forced to remove their existing fossil fuel boilers".

Anyone using the phrase "forced to rip out their boilers" should henceforth put £1 in the naughty jar.)

On to the funding…

💷 £3.9bn is…not anywhere close, even with existing spend, to making up the £9.2bn for home energy efficiency improvements pledged in the Tory manifesto

It'd hardly be 1st pledge to be broken, but still

carbonbrief.org/election-2019-…

There's a lot of ground to make up on energy efficiency, since Cameron "cut the green crap" and ended UK progress in 2013…

Not clear this new money bridges the gap. I await the verdict of @theCCCuk and others.

https://twitter.com/timbolord/status/1448727554634956800

On heat pumps, the govt strategy stresses they will play a "key role" in all scenarios

That shouldn't be a surprise as it's what CCC, IEA and basically all recent studies have suggested

https://twitter.com/janrosenow/status/1448955118490116104

In terms of funding, £450m over 3yrs –at £5,000 per home– is just 30,000 installations/yr, barely an increase on current rates & WAY short of govt target for 600,000/yr by 2028 (it'd pay for 5% of that)

CCC says we need 100k/yr in existing homes to 2025

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

But govt making big play on innovation, with £60m to help make heat pumps as cheap as or cheaper than gas boilers by 2030 – with cost reductions of 25-50% "expected" by 2025

*If* that happens, need for grants falls away

(Here's the latest on current heat pump costs from @JennyC_Hill at the CCC)

https://twitter.com/JennyC_Hill/status/1425822956412833806

Another key enabling policy change in the strategy is…

📜shifting env/social levies off electricity bills, which govt says it will decide on next yr, with a view to making the move over 10yrs

Shifting levies off electricity bills would end the current perverse subsidy for fossil gas over cleaner electricity

-Gas boilers currently get a massive subsidy in CO2 terms due to not paying for their emissions

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1410883414811721728

Media reports have suggested govt looking to move levies to gas. Press release silent on that.

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1443311732416471046

Big political risks here & could be v regressive / increase fuel poverty w/out appropriate design

(Energy efficiency would help cut bills)

https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1450110670700101637

🔥 on hydrogen…despite all the media hype…

Govt leaving a decision on hydrogen heat until 2026

By then, govt saying heat pumps 50% cheaper + being installed at scale…

Draw your own conclusions 🤷‍♂️

(Don't be surprised if there is nevertheless plenty of coverage around hydrogen heat tomorrow – I've personally received a bunch of press releases touting it as a solution for low-carbon heat.)

Background in our hydrogen Q&A

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-do…

We'll have all the details for you @CarbonBrief once the full strategy document gets published