I was going to sit on this theory until Halloween and drop it as a special but it seems like this is a good time to talk about it now.
Let's get started
Whether or not the raid will fail has been a popular debate throughout the arc, most notably, people like @mrmorjman have backed the idea that it will fail.
The main reasoning for this, is the apparent overwhelming odds against the alliance.
This counting only Kaido's crew.
Adding to the forces of Kaido's crew, we still have Big Mom's crew waiting in the wings & CP0 ready to pounce.
The odds against them seem insurmountable, it's understandably hard to imagine the raid succeeding.
However, let's make the case for it succeeding.
The majority of Kaido's crew are already defeated, only King, Queen & Kaido himself remain.
The real concern here, is what happens when Big Mom's crew join in?
Big Mom's crew will take a huge advantage & won't waste the opportunity for revenge on the Straw Hats & to finish off their main rivals.
So how will Big Mom's crew be prevented from claiming victory?
I believe, through Big Mom's rage mode.
Many will already be aware of this but it's highly likely that the members of CP0 currently in Onigashima are in fact from Big Mom's past.
If this is the case, then they may well reveal the truth of Mother Caramel to Big Mom, here in Wano; and this will trigger her rage mode.
Big Mom falling into a rage mode will cause her crew to lose their advantage and simultaneously provide a way for Kid & Law to defeat her, since her defence drops in that state.
For more of a thorough break down of how those events may occur, check out this Act 4 thread
In this scenario, a solution is presented to the issue of the Straw Hats being unable to fight Kaido and Big Mom's crew in a row. Most of the work falls to Kid & Law & the solution is presented by CP0.
That brings us to the main issue. Big Mom & Kaido themselves.
The main thing that gets people thinking that the raid will fail, is the fact that Kaido & Big Mom seem undefeatable. However, we now have ways in which both can fall. Kaido will be beaten by Luffy & Big Mom by Kid & Law.
That brings us to the main part of the theory. What happens if they do succeed?
It was mentioned by CP0, that if two Yonko were to fall here, the world would shift dramatically.
They don't believe that is possible.
The initial goal of the raid was just the defeat of Kaido and the opening of the borders of Wano, this did not include Big Mom.
However, what actually happens when this occurs?
First of all, we know that the World Government intent to invade, in the event of Kaido's defeat. This being because they want to maintain control over the source of the weapons they traffic
This reminds us of the dialogue between Oden & WB.
This ominous statement is echoed in the dialogue between Izo & Kawamatsu and the question, 'what happens to Wano if we succeed' is left unanswered.
The intention behind opening the borders, is to facilitate the conditions for the return of Joyboy.
This connects back to the prophecy of Joyboy & the Two Sovereign
The people of Fishman Island, also believe in 'the promised time' and it is said that once it comes, the borders between their world & the humans will be no more & Noah will fulfil it's purpose.
In both cases, it's likely that 'the promised time' being referred to is the same thing as 'the dawn'.
When Joyboy returns to Wano, the 'Two Sovereign shall meet again.'
We will get back to the significance of that in a bit but first, let's explore the other implication of the raid succeeding and the borders being opened.
If this happens, it will also simultaneously cause the collapse of the Balance of Power.
The Balance of Power has been one of the most important things throughout the story, affecting the events across the whole world since Crocodile.
At Alabasta & Thriller Bark, we saw the WG try to censor the defeat of Warlords.
In this scene, we hear it said that the WG cannot allow news of the Warlords being defeated to go public, as it would cause them to lose credibility.
Of course, the came back around following the defeat of Doflamingo, when Fujitora made his defeat public.
What followed these events was, as it was foreshadowed in Thriller Bark, the downfall of the Warlord system, it had lost it's credibility and following the Reverie, it was abolished.
Whilst the WG were able to replace the Warlords with the SSG, this still means that one of the three Balancing Powers has been disposed. Leaving only two remaining, the Yonko & the WG.
Just hit tweet limit but I will continue with immediately down below -
Getting back to it.
The true significance of these events, show us that the Balance of Power is becoming increasingly unstable.
This connects back to Law's speech at Punk Hazard, where he explains that Marineford only shifted the balance but now, he had 'broken the gears'.
So, if the Warlords system has already collapsed, what happens when not one but two Yonko are defeated in Wano.
We learned from Marineford, that one can be replaced and the balance maintained, but two?
The result of that would most likely be the Yonko system also collapsing.
With that, suddenly the only Balancing Power remaining is the World Government. So it becomes much clearer why the Gorosei were having this dialogue as they approached Imu.
The defeat of Kaido & Big Mom and the success of the raid will cause the collapse of the Balance of Power and the beginning of the 'Great Cleansing!'
This will most likely be a full scale reign of terror.
The first disaster that this 'Great Cleansing' will present, most likely concerns Vivi & Albasta. We saw in that same scene, that they were speaking of the Neferati family as traitors & Imu appears to be holding Vivi's picture.
That brings us to an interesting point raised by @Pangea_Castle, in how Oda has been foreshadowing the 'Great Cleansing' through Vivi often being depicted in cleaning scenarios
We know that the World Government intend to annex Wano, so it's likely they intend to annex Alabasta as well.
The true significance of that of course, is that Alabasta is the location of Pluton.
The World Government have been hunting Pluton since Water 7, this may be the moment in which they obtain it!
That connects us back to the implications of the World Government invading Wano and the prophecy of the Two Sovereign. One of those two sovereign, is known to be Poseidon.
This means that once the borders are open, Poseidon will come to Wano for the 'promised time' and meet with the second sovereign one.
The popular theory is that is Momo and that Momo is the Ancient Weapon, Uranus!
Whether or not Momo is Uranus is questionable but if he is, that puts all three Ancient Weapons into frame.
When the two sovereign meet, the Sea Kings hope that all will go well this time.
That probably means that things will go very wrong indeed.
One thing that may cause problems, is Caribou having the knowledge of Poseidon & being here in Wano.
People have been wandering who Caribou will tell this information to but if all goes this way, there will only really be one likely candidate left. Eustass Kid.
In fact, this was even foreshadowed.
This will mean that at least two of the Ancient Weapons will be falling into the wrong hands. A disastrous scenario.
Then we remember that in the end of Kaido's defeat, the WG will invade Wano & target Robin.
This brings us to a parallel between Thriller Bark & Wano, also mentioned by @Pangea_Castle
In both cases, they fight an Oni for the dawn & afterwards a cyborg created by Vegapunk appears.
The same is likely to occur in Wano, through the SSG.
This SSG project is most likely an upgrade to the Pacifista Project
The implications being that perhaps they now incorporate artificial devil fruits or gigantification, or both.
We know that Vegapunk once experiemented on Kaido and was able to create a perfect artificial devil fruit.
So that leads us to the idea, what if Big Mom is captured and they use her to perfect the gigantification?
Punk Hazard is destroyed but it just so happens tat Big Mom herself had a replica made.
If all these things occur, it's incredibly unlikely that the Straw Hats and the alliance will be able to cope, despite their raid succeeding, they still face overwhelming opposition.
That is what makes me believe the Revolutionaries will come.
I won't get too much into that here but check out this thread for a breakdown of their motives to intervene.
Perhaps the most important implication of all this, is the possible capture of Nico Robin, regarded by the Revolutionaries as 'The Flame of Revolution'
If she is captured, the consequences would be terrible.
So to conclude.
The success of the raid will cause the collapse of the Balance of Power and that will trigger the beginning of the Great Cleansing, as well as the beginning of the 'the promised day'.
At least two of the Ancient Weapons may fall into the wrong hands! -
And it's likely that Wano will be annexed as well as Alabasta, the Revolutionaries the only ones able to intervene.
It's possible Robin will be captured as well!
Putting all this together. The 'dawn' and the success of the raid will not necessarily bring us a happy ending, in fact it may cause the biggest disaster in the series.
The Day of Disaster
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