Neil Thomas 牛犇 Profile picture
Fellow on Chinese Politics @AsiaSociety. Ex @EurasiaGroup @MacroPoloChina @Harvard. Words @ForeignPolicy @LowyInstitute @TIME @WashingtonPost etc. Views my own.

Oct 20, 2021, 16 tweets

Huge day for personnel politics in the Chinese Communist Party

7 province-level govs get new Party Secretaries, inc Tibet, plus new Bingtuan PS in Xinjiang

Biggest day in ages, ramping up to the 20th Party Congress in 2022

These moves show Xi Jinping's power (again!) (1/16)

Wang Junzheng 王君正 (58yo) is the new Party Secretary of Tibet

Promoted from Party Secretary of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps ("bingtuan")

Was sanctioned by US, UK, EU & Canada for human rights violations in March

Bad sign for Tibet? More XJ methods? (2/16)

More on Wang:

Worked under Li Hongzhong, Xi's ally on the Party's elite 25-member Politburo, in Hubei from 2012-2016, & under Chen Quanguo in XJ

Will go from non-voting alternate to full Central Committee member next year & young enough to get on Politburo in 2027 (3/16)

Xu Qin 许勤 (60) is the new Party Secretary of Heilongjiang

Promoted from Governor of Hebei

Served in NDRC hi-tech depts for 21yrs (worked with Xi allies Liu He & Guo Shuqing). Shenzhen mayor 2010-17. Can his tech focus help the rust belt?

Full Central Committee member (4/16)

Zhang Qingwei 张庆伟 (60) is the new Party Secretary of Henan

Moved from being Party Secretary of Heilongjiang

Aerospace technocrat for 29 years before Hebei Governor 2011-17. Deep ties to rest of "aerospace gang" Xi has promoted recently

Full Central Committee member (5/16)

Wu Zhenglong 吴政隆 (56) is the new Party Secretary of Jiangsu

Promoted from Governor of Jiangsu

15 years in industrial policy agencies, 15 years in Chongqing local gov (under Bo Xilai & Sun Zhengcai!)

Full Central Committee member, young enough for Politburo in 2027 (6/16)

Yi Lianhong 易炼红 (62) is the new Party Secretary of Jiangxi

Promoted from Governor of Jiangxi

Local government cadre in his native Hunan for 25 years and a brief stint in Liaoning as Shenyang mayor

May go from alternate to full Central Committee member next year (7/16)

Liu Ning 刘宁 (59) is the new Party Secretary of Guangxi

Promoted from Governor of Liaoning, a role he got 14 months ago

Overlapped with Xi & Chen Xi at Tsinghua; Water engineer & vice-minister 34yrs; Qinghai Gov

Will go from alternate to full Central Committee member (8/16)

Wang Ning 王宁 (60) is the new Party Secretary of Yunnan

Promoted from Governor of Fujian, a role he got 13 months ago

Worked at housing ministry for 16+ yrs then in Fujian gov since 2015

Will go from alternate to full Central Committee member next year (9/16)

Li Yifei 李邑飞 (57) is the new Party Secretary of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps ("bingtuan")

First ministerial-level post, promoted from Director of Xinjiang CCP Organization Dept

Cadre in native Yunnan for 32 years & Guizhou

Central Committee in 2022 (10/16)

Xu Kunlin 许昆林 (56) is the new Governor of Jiangsu ("acting" for now)

First ministerial-level post, promoted from Party Secretary of Suzhou city

NDRC for 33yrs (inc Liu He overlap) then Shanghai vice mayor under Xi ally Li Qiang 2017-20

Central Committee seat in 2022 (11/16)

New appointees all replace leaders who are retiring or promoted, so no purge here

Wu Yingjie, Lou Qinjian, Xu Dazhe, Lu Xinhse turned 65 this year, the retirement age for provincial-ministerial level cadres

Liu Qi & Ruan Chengfa turned 64 & seem to be being eased out (12/16)

What provincial leadership posts are now vacant?

-Fujian Governor (Wang Ning's old job)

-Hebei Governor (Xu Qin)

-Jiangxi Governor (Yi Lianhong)

-Liaoning Governor (Liu Ning)

These are the next personnel moves to watch (13/16)

BUT some clues:

Xiong Maoping 熊茂平 (54) may be next Liaoning Governor

Just promoted to Liaoning CCP standing committee from Deputy Director of State Administration for Market Regulation

If so, he is a rising star & could show SAMR becoming new political power center (14/16)

MORE clues:

Wang Zhengpu 王正谱 (58) could be the next Governor of Hebei

Just promoted to Hebei Dep PS from heading agriculture ministry bureau responsible for Xi's "rural revitalization" strategy

Used to work under Xi ally Li Xi in Liaoning when Li was PS from 2015-17 (15/16)

Quick thoughts:

-PS promotions tend to go to cadres with local gov + central agency experience, more so than for Governors, w/technocrat a bonus, see:

-Again many promoted cadres have ties to Xi or Xi allies

-Sexism: these guys are all guys! (16/16)

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